Wednesday, December 19, 2007

NH Poll With Clinton Ahead Is Misleading - Only 417 Surveyed and All Older Voters Via Landline Phone

CNN's jumping all over itself to report that Hillary Clinton's ahead of Barack Obama in New Hamshire with this poll. But if you look at the poll, there are two problems: first, it surveys "likely Democratic Voters" which is another way of saying people who have voted before, which is another way of saying older voters.

Second, only 417 people were surveyed, which is not a large sample at all. Over 1,000 people would be better.

Third, it was a phone survey, which means no cell phones were called, just landlines.

I could tell you without looking that Clinton would come out on top here, but even with this, the poll data shows that Obama's ahead of Clinton in undecided voters, and if things go any way like that Fox News focus group were the people were behind Clinton at first, then picked Barack Obama after the last debate, Clinton's in trouble.

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