According to Pollster.com, two new Iowa polls show a very close race but with two different leaders. Here's what they write:
Two new polls of "likely Democratic caucus goers" conducted over the last ten days that show very different results. The American Research Group (ARG) survey (conducted 8/26-29, n=600) shows Hillary Clinton (with 28%) leading Barack Obama (23%) and John Edwards (20%). And a new survey from Time/SRBI (conducted 8/22-26, n=519, Time story, SRBI results) shows essentially the opposite, Edwards (with 29%) leading Clinton (24%) and Obama (22%).
The article goes on to complain about the lack of disclosure of methodology used in the polls, and then praises the Time poll for disclosure:
The sample source was a list of registered Democratic and Independent voters in Iowa provided by Voter Contact Services. These registered voters were screened to determine their likelihood of attending the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses.
Likely voters included in the sample included those who said they were
100% certain that they would attend the Iowa caucuses, OR
probably going to attend and reported that they had attended a previous Iowa caucus.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 5 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.
Data were weighted to approximate the 2004 Iowa Democratic Caucus "Entrance Polls," conducted January 19, 2004.
Turnout in primary elections and caucuses tends to be low, with polls at this early stage generally overestimating attendance.
The sample included cell phone numbers, which, to the extent SRBI was able to identify them, were dialed manually.
I emailed Schulman to ask about the incidence and he quickly replied with a "back of the envelope" calculation: Their sample of 519 likely caucus goers represents roughly 12% of eligible adults in Iowa (details on the jump), exactly the same
percentage as obtained by the recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, but higher than the reported 2004 Democratic caucus turnout (5.5% of eligible adults). Keep in mind, however, that the ABC/Post poll used a random digit dial methodology and screened from the population of all Iowa adults.
Keep in mind that these polls make calls to landlines and not cell-phones. I decided to check on articles related to the matter of cell phones and polls, and found one by the Pew Research Center that reported only 7 percent of the population was "cell-phone only" -- but that was in 2005. A more recent study of this year now reports that estimate to be up to 16 percent, more than double the count in just two years. Thus, I argue that with such a rate of growth, the cell-phone only population will be up to about 25 percent -- one quater of the population -- by election year 2008.
The Pew report explains that the exclusion of cell phones in 2005 probably renders a poll in error by one-percent. But considering that rate and this population increase, it's reasonable to argue that the polls are inaccuate by as much as 4 percent. If you add the error term of 5 percent in the case of the Time Iowa poll, it means a whopping 9 percent error, basically making the Iowa Democratic race impossible to call.
Stay tuned for my video on this.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Embattled Idaho Senator Larry Craig Faces Opposition From Own Party
Senator Larry Craig (R) of Idaho is currently facing fierce opposition from Presidential candidates John McCain, Mitt Romney and fellow Republicans in congress over his admittance of guilt to a disorderly conduct charge steaming from an awkward encounter with a male police officer in a Minnesota airport bathroom.
The final straw was delivered Monday afternoon when he discussed his sexual orientation during an infamous news conference in Boise when he claimed ''I am not gay and, have never been gay.'' His statement has construed political backlash from his colleagues who are calling for his resignation due to the shame and negativity he has brought to the Republican party.
The senior senator from Idaho had the opportunity to declare his innocence in front of a judge, but opted to plead guilty to what is a ridiculous charge. From the audio tape there was no concise statement from him admitting to any wrong doing, and most likely if he had fought the charge he would have been victorious. The unfortunate part of this case is that the senator is extremely frightened to come out of the closet and inside he must be going through hell.
The final straw was delivered Monday afternoon when he discussed his sexual orientation during an infamous news conference in Boise when he claimed ''I am not gay and, have never been gay.'' His statement has construed political backlash from his colleagues who are calling for his resignation due to the shame and negativity he has brought to the Republican party.
The senior senator from Idaho had the opportunity to declare his innocence in front of a judge, but opted to plead guilty to what is a ridiculous charge. From the audio tape there was no concise statement from him admitting to any wrong doing, and most likely if he had fought the charge he would have been victorious. The unfortunate part of this case is that the senator is extremely frightened to come out of the closet and inside he must be going through hell.
Free WiFi In San Francisco Dormant - Earthlink Deal Off The Table
According to the SF Chron,...
"Mayor Gavin Newsom's high-profile effort to blanket San Francisco with a free wireless Internet network died Wednesday when provider EarthLink backed out of a proposed contract with the city.
The contract, which was three years in the making, had run into snags with the Board of Supervisors, but ultimately it was undone when Atlanta-based EarthLink announced Tuesday that it no longer believed providing citywide Wi-Fi was economically viable for the company."
Perhaps this opens the door for Google.
"Mayor Gavin Newsom's high-profile effort to blanket San Francisco with a free wireless Internet network died Wednesday when provider EarthLink backed out of a proposed contract with the city.
The contract, which was three years in the making, had run into snags with the Board of Supervisors, but ultimately it was undone when Atlanta-based EarthLink announced Tuesday that it no longer believed providing citywide Wi-Fi was economically viable for the company."
Perhaps this opens the door for Google.
Republicans Ask Larry Craig To Step Down
He's got to give up his committee assignments, according to CNN, Huff Post, and other news outlets. But as this story unfolds, I predict he'll step down before the end of the year.
Larry Craig's become the poster child for hypocritical behavior. And his poor wife's being dragged through this. That's terrible to watch.
Larry Craig's become the poster child for hypocritical behavior. And his poor wife's being dragged through this. That's terrible to watch.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Furious Seasons Says Owen Wilson Was On Anti-Depressants
The blog Furious Seasons Says Owen Wilson Was On Anti-Depressants at the time of his suicide attempt. Whatever the case, my prayers for this talented man who seemed to have the World on a string.
GOP Full OF Larry Craigs - Sex Scandals And Republicans
Craig just the latest politician to embarrass the GOP
Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Printable Version
Email This Article
(08-29) 04:00 PDT Washington --
Scott Reed, a Republican strategist, was at a dinner in Philadelphia Monday night when his cell phone and Internet pager began beeping like crazy. Only later did he learn why: His party was being rocked by a sex scandal involving a Republican U.S. senator - again.
Just when Republicans thought things couldn't get any worse, Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho confirmed that he had pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct after an undercover police officer accused him of soliciting sex in a Minneapolis airport bathroom in June.
On Tuesday, Craig held a press conference to defend himself, calling the guilty plea a mistake and declaring "I am not gay" - even as the Senate Republican leadership asked for an ethics committee review.
It was a bizarre spectacle, and only the latest in a string of alleged sexual foibles and alleged financial misdeeds that have landed Republicans in the political equivalent of purgatory: the realm of late-night comic TV.
Forget Mark Foley, who quit the House last year after exchanging sexually explicit e-mails with underage male pages, or Jack Abramoff, the lobbyist whose dealings with the old Republican Congress landed him in prison. They are old news, replaced by a fresh crop of scandal-plagued Republicans, men like Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana, whose phone number turned up on the list of the "D.C. Madam," or Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska and Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona, both caught up in FBI corruption probes.
It's enough to make a self-respecting Republican want to tear his hair out in frustration.
"The real question for Republicans in Washington is how low can you go, because we are approaching a level of ridiculousness," Reed, sounding exasperated, said Tuesday. "You can't make this stuff up. And the impact this is having on the grass roots around the country is devastating. Republicans think the governing class in Washington are a bunch of buffoons who have total disregard for the principles of the party, the law of the land and the future of the country."
Then again, Washington does not have a monopoly on the latest trend among Republicans. Just ask Thomas Ravenel, the state treasurer of South Carolina, who had to step down as state chairman of Ru dy Giuliani's presidential campaign after he was indicted on cocaine charges in June.
Or Bob Allen, a state representative in Florida who was jettisoned from John McCain's campaign last month after he was arrested on charges of soliciting sex in a public restroom.
Republicans, of course, do not have an exclusive hold on scandal. As Democrats accused Republicans of engaging in a culture of corruption during the 2006 mid-term elections, Republicans eagerly put the spotlight on Rep. William Jefferson, the Louisiana Democrat who stashed $90,000 in his freezer - ill-gotten gains, the authorities said.
Still, there is sort of a "here we go again" sense among Republicans these days, especially since news of Craig's arrest broke Monday afternoon. It's tough enough being in the minority, weighed down by the burden of the war in Iraq. Now Republicans have an even more pressing task: keeping their party from being portrayed not just as hypocritical and out of touch with the values of people they represent, but also as a laughingstock - amid headlines like "Senator's Bathroom Bust," which ran all afternoon Tuesday on CNN.
Because President Bush is hobbled by his own political difficulties and the need to parry assaults on the White House by Democrats, the party can hardly look to him to lead them out of the morass.
John Feehery, who was press secretary to Rep. Dennis Hastert when Hastert was the House speaker, likened the situation to a football team having a run of bad luck during a rough game.
"If we had a coach," Feehery said, "the coach would take us in the locker room and scream at us."
Some Republicans are indeed screaming, particularly the party's social conservative wing, which places a high priority on ethics and family values.
Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, a conservative lobby in Washington, said the elections of November 2006, in which Republicans lost control of both the House and the Senate, proved that voters want politicians in Washington to clean up their act.
"Exit polls show that was the No. 1 factor in depressing Republican enthusiasm," Perkins said Tuesday. "There is an expectation that leaders who espouse family values will live by those values. And while the values voters don't demand perfection, I do believe they want leaders with integrity."
Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Printable Version
Email This Article
(08-29) 04:00 PDT Washington --
Scott Reed, a Republican strategist, was at a dinner in Philadelphia Monday night when his cell phone and Internet pager began beeping like crazy. Only later did he learn why: His party was being rocked by a sex scandal involving a Republican U.S. senator - again.
Just when Republicans thought things couldn't get any worse, Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho confirmed that he had pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct after an undercover police officer accused him of soliciting sex in a Minneapolis airport bathroom in June.
On Tuesday, Craig held a press conference to defend himself, calling the guilty plea a mistake and declaring "I am not gay" - even as the Senate Republican leadership asked for an ethics committee review.
It was a bizarre spectacle, and only the latest in a string of alleged sexual foibles and alleged financial misdeeds that have landed Republicans in the political equivalent of purgatory: the realm of late-night comic TV.
Forget Mark Foley, who quit the House last year after exchanging sexually explicit e-mails with underage male pages, or Jack Abramoff, the lobbyist whose dealings with the old Republican Congress landed him in prison. They are old news, replaced by a fresh crop of scandal-plagued Republicans, men like Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana, whose phone number turned up on the list of the "D.C. Madam," or Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska and Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona, both caught up in FBI corruption probes.
It's enough to make a self-respecting Republican want to tear his hair out in frustration.
"The real question for Republicans in Washington is how low can you go, because we are approaching a level of ridiculousness," Reed, sounding exasperated, said Tuesday. "You can't make this stuff up. And the impact this is having on the grass roots around the country is devastating. Republicans think the governing class in Washington are a bunch of buffoons who have total disregard for the principles of the party, the law of the land and the future of the country."
Then again, Washington does not have a monopoly on the latest trend among Republicans. Just ask Thomas Ravenel, the state treasurer of South Carolina, who had to step down as state chairman of Ru dy Giuliani's presidential campaign after he was indicted on cocaine charges in June.
Or Bob Allen, a state representative in Florida who was jettisoned from John McCain's campaign last month after he was arrested on charges of soliciting sex in a public restroom.
Republicans, of course, do not have an exclusive hold on scandal. As Democrats accused Republicans of engaging in a culture of corruption during the 2006 mid-term elections, Republicans eagerly put the spotlight on Rep. William Jefferson, the Louisiana Democrat who stashed $90,000 in his freezer - ill-gotten gains, the authorities said.
Still, there is sort of a "here we go again" sense among Republicans these days, especially since news of Craig's arrest broke Monday afternoon. It's tough enough being in the minority, weighed down by the burden of the war in Iraq. Now Republicans have an even more pressing task: keeping their party from being portrayed not just as hypocritical and out of touch with the values of people they represent, but also as a laughingstock - amid headlines like "Senator's Bathroom Bust," which ran all afternoon Tuesday on CNN.
Because President Bush is hobbled by his own political difficulties and the need to parry assaults on the White House by Democrats, the party can hardly look to him to lead them out of the morass.
John Feehery, who was press secretary to Rep. Dennis Hastert when Hastert was the House speaker, likened the situation to a football team having a run of bad luck during a rough game.
"If we had a coach," Feehery said, "the coach would take us in the locker room and scream at us."
Some Republicans are indeed screaming, particularly the party's social conservative wing, which places a high priority on ethics and family values.
Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, a conservative lobby in Washington, said the elections of November 2006, in which Republicans lost control of both the House and the Senate, proved that voters want politicians in Washington to clean up their act.
"Exit polls show that was the No. 1 factor in depressing Republican enthusiasm," Perkins said Tuesday. "There is an expectation that leaders who espouse family values will live by those values. And while the values voters don't demand perfection, I do believe they want leaders with integrity."
Hillary Clinton Backs National Smoking Ban - Cig Smoking George Burns Pissed! - NY Post
I think it's one thing to promote anti-cancer awareness, but quite another to back a national smoking ban. I mean, look. Why is it that the late commedian George Burns lived to the ripe age of 99 drinking and smoking cigars along the way?
I don't regularly smoke at all, but I have a cigar once a year to celebrate my annual trip to the NFL Draft. Ok, maybe twice or three times a year. But that's it. But I love having the choice!
Here's the story...
HILL EYES NATIONAL CIG CURB
By GEOFF EARLE Post Correspondent
HILLARY CLINTON
Speaks at cancer forum.
August 28, 2007 -- WASHINGTON - Hillary Clinton lavished praise on New York City's tough anti-smoking laws yesterday - and said she supports smoking bans in public places across the country.
Asked at an Iowa forum on cancer whether banning smoking in public places would be good for America, Clinton replied, "Well, personally, I think so. And that's what a lot of local communities and states are starting to do."
Clinton noted that when New York's smoking ban was being considered, critics claimed, "Oh, that's the end of, you know, the bars and restaurants in New York City."
But she boasted, "We are now having more business than ever before, because a lot of people who stayed away from going out are now going out again, because they feel like they can enjoy their time outside."
Asked whether the feds should impose a nationwide ban, Clinton deferred to local governments.
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