The Egyptian President Hosnie Mubarak's statement that he would not seek re-election and step down in seven months was not well-received by his people. And even before the evening speech, thousands if not millions took to the streets and to Tahrir Square to say in different ways, some direct, others harsh, still others vulgar, "get out."
The Guardian UK described it all this way :
Four generations, more than a million people (according to the army count at 2pm) are here. They are all doing what they have not been able to do for decades; each and every one is having their say in their own way and insisting on being counted. Their dominant demand, of course, is for Mubarak to step down.
President Barack Obama just gave a speech where he called for change "now," but was read by some observers as less than direct. The unfortunate fact is if Mubarak were to just walk away, the Egyptian Government would be in chaos, and no one knows what the next direction would be.
Would opposition leaders take control, and if they did, would they be moved aside by yet another political group we don't know about. Also, would that rapid transition come by bullet?
We don't know, and it's a sure bet President Obama does know. It's a good thing Obama doesn't have someone like CNN Analyst David Gergen as an advisor, because if Obama had listened to him, there would have been no speech at all, and the World would be calling for him to say something. Gergen's safely away from the White House, and its a good thing.
What seems to be happening is Obama's giving the protesters a green light to continue their work, and in a way giving a green light to a kind of orderly chaos. This is clearly from over, and there are indications it's just beginning.
How Did This Start? Economics, Youth, and Social Networks
Many of the great post-World War II social movements were started by people in their 20s. The one that comes to mind is the free speech movement of the 60s, which really wasn't confined to Berkeley. It was in Europe as well, and in something called The May Student Riots.
The The May Student Riots were, like today, a strike against French's traditional culture, and happened at a time of economic weakness, and threatened to totally skink President Charles de Gaulle's Administration. Also Egypt's median age is just 23, whereas President Mubarak is a defiant 82 years old.
On top of this, Egypt's people are poor. While the U.S. income inequality is actually worse than for Egypt, it's hard to make an argument that America's poor are worse off than Egypt's poor, and the per capita income there is just under $6,500, where it's about $47,000 in the U.S..
On top of all of that, add something France in the 60s didn't have: the Internet and mobile communications. They, in the form of smartphones, social networks, blogs, and microblogging sites, have served as the modern foundation for the planning of dissent. What was too expensive to do 40 years ago, having a printing press and a way to send out papers, is now surpassed by a free and easy way to communicate ideas within seconds.
Plus, World wide media like CNN and the BBC communicate Western ideas of freedom, something particularly annoying to hardline old timers in the Mid East.
The resultant impact, what the SF Bay Area Community refers to as "disruptive," has gradually taken down all forms of old approaches in World society: newspapers, media, the very way we work, and now governments.
We're in the middle of a time that's without precedent in World History. The World Communication System has tied together what Bob Klein (who now owns Oakland's Olivetto Restaurant), called The Global Teenager when he was affiliated with the Global Business Network in the 80s.
Klein explained to me then that there were basic cultural values that bound teenagers and young adults together then. It's fair to say that such is still true today, but accelerated by digital technology and World wide media.
Because of that, the process is organic, elegant, and powerful.
That is fueling a World wide desire to dismantle tyrannical governments, and no more is this currently so than in the Mid East.
The website MidEastYouth.com asks if the protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen are being done by "agents of the West," and then answers the question with a large dose of sarcasm. In a blog post called "Will the Tunisian scenario be repeated in Egypt?" Bedlam Beggar of Tunisia says:
Tunisia’s revolution against Ben Ali’s iron-fisted regime is the proof that repression of the masses and attempts to crack down nation-wide demonstrations using tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition result in escalation. Egypt is witnessing a similar scenario these days. Change from below seems imminent once again and the potentate risks to be deposed. Indeed, despite the oppressive measures taken by the Egyptian government, thousands are expected to join street protests scheduled after Friday prayer today.
He goes on to explain that "Facebook did not start the uprising. It only helped rally people. Social networking and video-sharing websites are now used to inform the international community about what is happening in Egypt. Trying to put an end to new media coverage is a clear indication that the regime wants to cut people off the outside world. Cybercitizens’ role proved bigger than professional journalists’ in such revolutions."
And because of that, and due to organizations like The Social Media Cafe In Cairo, Obama's speech, so terribly misread by CNN's Gergen, may have struck a match that kept the protests going on, perhaps violently. This AP video shows a man being killed by a sniper in Egypt's North Sinai as he was fleeing...
If we see more of this, Egypt's "Days of Rage" will not only continue, but spill over to other parts of the Mid East.
Obama knew what he was doing. He was giving protestors room to grow, and to take out Mubarak on their own. But, he knows and said the process will not be a clean one.
Stay tuned.
