Wednesday, December 19, 2007

NH Poll With Clinton Ahead Is Misleading - Only 417 Surveyed and All Older Voters Via Landline Phone

CNN's jumping all over itself to report that Hillary Clinton's ahead of Barack Obama in New Hamshire with this poll. But if you look at the poll, there are two problems: first, it surveys "likely Democratic Voters" which is another way of saying people who have voted before, which is another way of saying older voters.

Second, only 417 people were surveyed, which is not a large sample at all. Over 1,000 people would be better.

Third, it was a phone survey, which means no cell phones were called, just landlines.

I could tell you without looking that Clinton would come out on top here, but even with this, the poll data shows that Obama's ahead of Clinton in undecided voters, and if things go any way like that Fox News focus group were the people were behind Clinton at first, then picked Barack Obama after the last debate, Clinton's in trouble.

Barack Obama Ahead Of Clinton in Iowa 33 to 29; Edwards at 20 In ABC News Poll

ABC reports that Barack Obama's ahead of Hillary Clinton 33 to 29 in Iowa, with John Edwards at 20 percent. But what's interesting and smelly to me is that the Huffington Post didn't report that, electing to go with a more obscure poll that shows John Edwards out in front, instead of reporting on both polls.

That's not right.

Here's the news the Huff Post doesn't want you to see:

Currently, among likely Democratic caucus-goers in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, 33 percent support Obama, 29 percent Clinton and 20 percent Edwards, with single-digit support for the other Democratic candidates

Yep. He's in front, and in of all places an ABC Poll, which is certainly giving them fits, as they've been trying to bury him in subtle ways for months. Not again.

ABC and CNN and Huff Post should deal with the fact that no one trusts them and their attempts to manipulate public opinion are seen as distrespectful of the voting process and of Americans.