More big earthquakes projected for 2010 than 2009, 2008, and 2007

As reported in the blog post on the 7.7 Indonesian earthquake of today, an analysis of online information published by the US Geological Survey revealed this information:

In all there have been 23 "significant earthquakes" of above 4 on the Richter Scale in 2010 thus far, according to the US Geological Survey. And of those, 17 have been over 6 on the scale. There were 72 "significant earthquakes" in all of 2009 and 58 in 2008, and 56 in 2007.

If this rate continues according to this blogger's calculations, there will be 92 "significant earthquakes" for 2010, 20 more than in 2009 and 44 more than for all of 2008, and 46 more than in all of 2007.

The skeptic would offer that this current trend of "significant earthquakes" could be slowed by a lull, but even excluding 2010, the number of "significant earthquakes" has increased from 56 in 2007 to 72 in 2009 in looking at the USGS information.

One reason for this increase in number may be improved earthquake sensing technology. Indeed, the USGS reports that this is the case. But there's a problem in the basic logic presented by the USGS, a large earthquake has damaging impacts such that more sensitive technology would make no difference, a large quake is just that: big. People know when an earthquake larger than 6 on the Richter Scale strikes. Moreover the USGS points to improved technology between 1931 and today, not within the last decade.

So we come back to the apparent fact that we have more earthquakes of significant (read: large) size projected for 2010 than in over the last four years.

Stay tuned.