Slate Delegate Calculator Shows Obama Lead Even With Clinton Wins

The sheer power of Senator Barack Obama's eleven straight primary wins and its impact on the delegate race can be seen just by using Slate's Delegate Calculator. It's an online device where one can test how overall or specific state-by-state percentage wins effect the overall delegate race.

I've found that even if Senator Clinton were to win all of the remaining contests by an average of 10 percent for each state, including today's "Super Tuesday" primaries -- a total of 16 primaries and contests -- Senator Obama would still hold an overall lead in pledged delegates, but need 392 superdelegates to reach 2,025.

Right now, he has 208 Superdelegates.

Now, think about this. Even if Clinton WON each -- each state -- from now on and by an average of 10 percent, Obama would still have the lead in delegates 1,633 to 1,576.

That's why there's so much pressure for Clinton to get out of the race. There's no realistic scenario where Clinton could win all of the states and have the delegate lead. The only one is totally unrealistic and that's for Clinton to win 60 to 40 in all of the remaining states, including today. That means she would have to see a 20 point average win.

That's not going to happen.

Now what would happen if Senator Obama won each state by an average of 10 percent? (Something more likely than the Clinton example.) Then Obama would have 1,732 delegates, with Clinton at 1,477 delegates; Obama needs 293 Superdelegates; he has 208 now.

That means if 95 undeclared Superdelegates move to back Obama, it's over under this scenario.

Obama By Four?

OK. So what if Obama won by a four percent average in each primary and caucus, including today's events? Then Obama would need 323 Superdelegates; since he has 208 as of this writing, then 125 undeclared Superdelegates would have to back Obama.

According to MSNBC, Obama's campaign says they have 50 Superdelegates ready to back Obama. If they all sign up, that means he only needs 75 more to support him and it's over. This may be the most likely outcome of all. At least we should consider it a benchmark.