Think about it. That means there would be an overwhelming Democratic win in West Virginia, right? So what's Rasmussen doing with it's polling methods?
I check the site and it reads this:
Rasmussen Reports collects data for its survey research using an automated polling methodology.
Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, automated polling systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.
For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll or the Rasmussen Consumer Index, the automated technology insures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.
All Rasmussen Reports' survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.
After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.
For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.
Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.
So basically, Rasmussen uses an automatic calling system of "likely voters" which means they're older than the younger voters that have overwhelmingly went for Obama.
Which means they're more likely to produce a poll that favors John McCain. Consider that the Rasmussen methodogy calls listed number and many cell phones -- which young people generally use almost exclusively -- are not called.
Now I'm trying to determine if Rasmussen knows what party the people called are registered with. Rasmussen report that...
After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors.
"Political party" is used in the weighting? Really? So it's obvious that either Rasmussen has the wrong party registration numbers or the weighting formula itself is just plain wrong.
West Virginia has 665,234 Democrats, 347,760 Republicans and 156,199 who are unaffiliated. With those estimates, Obama should win West Virginia if all Democrats come out and vote. The polls are wrong, or Democrats are expressing a switch to vote for McCain? It's hard to tell that from the Rasmussen system. But even if that were the case, it would still not reflect what young voters are going to do, so you've got to give the advantage to Barack Obama.
Don't trust the polls in 2008.
I like John McCain too; he seems to be a great guy, personable, likable, a kind of guy that you could invite over to a BBQ. Yeah sure, I respect him for his military service. No it doesn’t bother me that he graduate in the bottom 5% of his class from the Naval Academy, (hey I dropped out of High school) or that he crashed 4 planes,(I crashed my car twice) or even that he was shot down on his first mission over Vietnam,(hey, I’m three time loser) or even the that he started singing like a bird when captured by the NVA, without being tortured, or that he cheated on his wife, while in office, and is trying to portray himself as the candidate for family values, hey who am I to judge, I've mad my fair share of mistakes and then some, so who am I to judge McCain for his.
ReplyDeleteWhat really gets me is that some of your readers, won’t name any names, (hint:on a 2001 car trip to Florida), spoke about how Bush was going to do this, and bush was going to do that, and how the economy was going to be better. What happened? We started out with a surplus and eight years later were going to end up with the biggest deficit by a president ever recorded in history, and McCain supported Bush 95% of the time.
Our economy has tanked, our Gas Prices have skyrocketed and everything from the cost of food to diapers has gotten insanely expensive. I won’t mention how many Americans lost their jobs, or the tax breaks to companies that ship American Jobs overseas. Maybe those of you that are well off can afford the basic necessities, or have a nest egg to carry you over until the economy gets better, but many Americans, including myself cannot.
We went to war in IRAQ on a LIE, remember WMDs, 4,146 soldiers are dead 30,182 wounded for a LIE .How did Americans get duped into agreeing to spend 12 Billion a month in Iraq for a war that shouldn’t even be? So far we spent $368 billion on military operations, $45 billion more in veterans care, diplomatic services, training with that type of money we could of rebuilt the nation’s Infrastructure, invested in alternative energy and established our own Universal Healthcare.
Come on, be honest, when "W" changed his focus from looking for Bin Laden in Afghanistan to invading Iraq, you weren’t all scratching your head thinking "why in the hell are we doing that?" Intelligent and hardworking Americans such as yourselves?, didn’t have any doubt about that decision? OK, ok, I will give you the benefit of the doubt.
What about when the excuse for invading Iraq was proven to be a LIE, WMDs? How about then? Were you outraged? No. no, you just voted him back into office for another four years, with the excuse, "Well,we want him to finish what he started." What!? Come on, wake up! If that was any other American, he would be in prison.
John McCain has been in Washington for a long time, twenty-six years and nothing’s has changed. He is out of touch with reality. He doesn’t even understand economics and even admits it himself,
"The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should," McCain said on December 17 in New Hampshire, http://lburl.com/idd0k
I’m astounded, How can smart, Intelligent, hardworking people want McCain for president? Don’t get me wrong, I like John McCain, even after all the crappy things he has done, even after all his flopping around on issues like a fish out of water, I like him, just not as my Next President!
I am 36, and this will be my first election that I will vote in: presidential or otherwise. It’s Time for a change in Washington.
It’s time for a president for the people, from the people, someone who has seen the same hardships that we have, made the same kind of sacrifices we made, and works hard for success, Think about that when you cast your ballot in November.