Think about it. That means there would be an overwhelming Democratic win in West Virginia, right? So what's Rasmussen doing with it's polling methods?
I check the site and it reads this:
Rasmussen Reports collects data for its survey research using an automated polling methodology.
Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, automated polling systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.
For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll or the Rasmussen Consumer Index, the automated technology insures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.
All Rasmussen Reports' survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.
After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.
For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.
Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.
So basically, Rasmussen uses an automatic calling system of "likely voters" which means they're older than the younger voters that have overwhelmingly went for Obama.
Which means they're more likely to produce a poll that favors John McCain. Consider that the Rasmussen methodogy calls listed number and many cell phones -- which young people generally use almost exclusively -- are not called.
Now I'm trying to determine if Rasmussen knows what party the people called are registered with. Rasmussen report that...
After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors.
"Political party" is used in the weighting? Really? So it's obvious that either Rasmussen has the wrong party registration numbers or the weighting formula itself is just plain wrong.
West Virginia has 665,234 Democrats, 347,760 Republicans and 156,199 who are unaffiliated. With those estimates, Obama should win West Virginia if all Democrats come out and vote. The polls are wrong, or Democrats are expressing a switch to vote for McCain? It's hard to tell that from the Rasmussen system. But even if that were the case, it would still not reflect what young voters are going to do, so you've got to give the advantage to Barack Obama.
Don't trust the polls in 2008.
