Last year, I created a video and blog post reporting how Gallup's Frank Newport rigged a poll created for the USA Today to reflect a Clinton lead over Barack Obama in June and because Newport admitted that he could not believe that Obama was tied with Clinton.
This is what I wrote last year:
OK. Get this. Just get this. Two weeks ago, Senator Barack Obama was tied -- that's right, tied -- with Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic Presidential race in the then latest USA Today / Gallup Poll. Now, USA Today / Gallup didn't do a poll in May, and certainly not two weeks apart, but this new one says that Senator Clinton has a large lead.
What?
The critical eye would have a question. I've got several. But the bottom line is the second round of polling was rigged. Why? Because someone didn't like the outcome and doesn't want Senator Barack Obama to win, so they immediately ordered another poll and worked to obtain results they wanted to see.
The poll effort was rigged. That's right, rigged.
You can't even find the poll on the Gallup website. How in the hell can you explain the supposed "double-digit lead" Senator Clinton has, but then she's behind in South Carolina? That observation about the black vote being the reason is pure bull shit.
Don't believe it because there's no proof for it.
This is what the USA Today's "Gallup Guru" , Frank Newport, reported in his blog - the smoking gun, in part, is here:
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Clinton, Obama, immigration and Russian attitudes
New polling data from several survey organizations – including pending data from Gallup -- make it clear that Sen. Hillary Clinton is maintaining or strengthening her lead for the presidential nomination over Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats. Our early June USA Today/Gallup poll showed the two tied, as discussed here and here. But that finding apparently did not signify a significant change in the structure of the race. The latest polls from the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal/NBC show Clinton in her accustomed role as leader when Democrats are asked whom they want to be their party’s nominee. It looks as if the June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll either picked up a short term change, or as noted here, was a function of unusual sampling which happened to pick up Democrats who were more pro-Obama than the underlying population.
We have a Gallup poll now in the field, with results to be reported early next week. Preliminary indications are that this poll will find Clinton back in her typical leadership position as she has been for the most part this year.
What? In other words, Whoops! We can't believe the outcome, so we've got to talk to a new set of people and get the outcome we want. We can't -- just can't -- be forced to report that Senator Obama is tied with Senator Clinton.
What the Gallup Guru does not explain is why they did a new poll so close after the first one, and without having done a poll two weeks before?
I'll tell you why. Because USA Today and CNN are reporting these polls and don't want Senator Barack Obama to win the Democratic race for the White House.
They don't want a president who happens to be Black, and so they're trying to engineer a win for Senator Clinton. First, CNN consistently focuses on the race issue, then reports any small seemingly negative information about Senator Obama. Any positive information is either downplayed or avoided altogether, or rigged, as in the case of this polling process.
I think the USA Today, CNN, and Gallup all should appologize to Senator Barack Obama. I seriously doubt Frank Newport just decided to do a new poll -- the USA Today paid him to do a new poll because they didn't like the outcome of the first one.
That's crass. Noam Chomsky was right in his classic work "Manufacturing Consent" -- the old media (USA Today) is trying to manipulate the public.
They have to explain the South Carolina poll as well as why the Mason-Dixon pollsters shared their error data, where the USA Today / Gallup Poll people did not. One can argue that the latest USA Today Gallup Poll has a huge margin of error considering the games they play with these polls. This is totally irresponsible on the part of USA Today and Gallup.
Now it appears that Newport and Gallup are at it again, and once again with the USA Today. The credit for this discovery goes to DailyKos blogger Dick Driver, who explained that normally Gallup uses "registered voters" as the basis for its poll surveys but for a USA Today poll after the Republican National Convention, Gallup created a poll using the less accurate "likely voter" method.
How did Driver know this? Because he found Gallup's own notes explaining the problem. Here's what Driver wrote:
From Gallup:
Second, we are at this point reporting likely voter estimates on only an occasional basis. We feel that the trends among registered voters give us the best way to track election preferences in our daily poll, in part because many voters are not yet in a position to accurately estimate their chances of voting on Election Day. But from time to time, we do estimate (and report) likely voter results to give us a feel for the potential difference turnout could make in November. So far this summer, there have been occasions when -- as was the case this past weekend after the GOP convention -- likely voters were decidedly more Republican. But there have also been occasions when there was little difference between the vote patterns of likely voters and those of registered voters.
In other words, Gallup is admitting the following:
At the time it released the September 8th poll (showing McCain up by 10), it believed institutionally that likely voter results were less accurate than registered voter results.
Likely voter results have only occasionally diverged from the registered voter results.
Despite these facts, Gallup deliberately chose to release, to the widest fanfare possible, a poll using an admittedly less accurate method (the likely voter method) at the time of McCain's maximum convention bounce, knowing that it would show a large divergence (+10 for McCain vs. only +4 with registered voters) based on the likely voter method, even though such a divergence is not often present.
In short, they combined all possible factors in McCain's favor to make his lead seem as big as possible -- and the media went wild with it.
But the problem does not end there.
The Democratic Party has an advantage of 11 million more registered voters than the Republican Party and the margin keeps growing. But that difference is not reflected in the polls. The reason, according to Seth Coulter Walls in the Huffington Post, is that "Party ID" -- who's Democrat, Republican, etc -- is estimated as either 50 / 50 or in some cases with Republicans ahead. That's not what reality tells us, but the poll results reflect a closer race that the true totals of registered Democrats and Republicans show. And that shows a possible landslide victory for Senator's Barack Obama and Joe Biden if the Obama camp's get out the vote strategy works as well as it seems that it will come election day.
