My blogger friend Oliver Willis reports that the post Republican Convention "bounce" is over, but I wonder if it's just that Gallup elected to stop playing games with numbers. So I walked over to the DailyKos, which has its own daily poll tracking system.
DailyKos has Obama ahead by 4 points and not 2 points, 48 to 44 points. But back to Gallup, I'm going to check on their method to see what's up, later.
Showing posts with label Gallup Poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gallup Poll. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
USA Today Gallup Poll Numbers Rigged Again -- To Favor McCain
Last year, I created a video and blog post reporting how Gallup's Frank Newport rigged a poll created for the USA Today to reflect a Clinton lead over Barack Obama in June and because Newport admitted that he could not believe that Obama was tied with Clinton.
This is what I wrote last year:
OK. Get this. Just get this. Two weeks ago, Senator Barack Obama was tied -- that's right, tied -- with Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic Presidential race in the then latest USA Today / Gallup Poll. Now, USA Today / Gallup didn't do a poll in May, and certainly not two weeks apart, but this new one says that Senator Clinton has a large lead.
What?
The critical eye would have a question. I've got several. But the bottom line is the second round of polling was rigged. Why? Because someone didn't like the outcome and doesn't want Senator Barack Obama to win, so they immediately ordered another poll and worked to obtain results they wanted to see.
The poll effort was rigged. That's right, rigged.
You can't even find the poll on the Gallup website. How in the hell can you explain the supposed "double-digit lead" Senator Clinton has, but then she's behind in South Carolina? That observation about the black vote being the reason is pure bull shit.
Don't believe it because there's no proof for it.
This is what the USA Today's "Gallup Guru" , Frank Newport, reported in his blog - the smoking gun, in part, is here:
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Clinton, Obama, immigration and Russian attitudes
New polling data from several survey organizations – including pending data from Gallup -- make it clear that Sen. Hillary Clinton is maintaining or strengthening her lead for the presidential nomination over Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats. Our early June USA Today/Gallup poll showed the two tied, as discussed here and here. But that finding apparently did not signify a significant change in the structure of the race. The latest polls from the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal/NBC show Clinton in her accustomed role as leader when Democrats are asked whom they want to be their party’s nominee. It looks as if the June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll either picked up a short term change, or as noted here, was a function of unusual sampling which happened to pick up Democrats who were more pro-Obama than the underlying population.
We have a Gallup poll now in the field, with results to be reported early next week. Preliminary indications are that this poll will find Clinton back in her typical leadership position as she has been for the most part this year.
What? In other words, Whoops! We can't believe the outcome, so we've got to talk to a new set of people and get the outcome we want. We can't -- just can't -- be forced to report that Senator Obama is tied with Senator Clinton.
What the Gallup Guru does not explain is why they did a new poll so close after the first one, and without having done a poll two weeks before?
I'll tell you why. Because USA Today and CNN are reporting these polls and don't want Senator Barack Obama to win the Democratic race for the White House.
They don't want a president who happens to be Black, and so they're trying to engineer a win for Senator Clinton. First, CNN consistently focuses on the race issue, then reports any small seemingly negative information about Senator Obama. Any positive information is either downplayed or avoided altogether, or rigged, as in the case of this polling process.
I think the USA Today, CNN, and Gallup all should appologize to Senator Barack Obama. I seriously doubt Frank Newport just decided to do a new poll -- the USA Today paid him to do a new poll because they didn't like the outcome of the first one.
That's crass. Noam Chomsky was right in his classic work "Manufacturing Consent" -- the old media (USA Today) is trying to manipulate the public.
They have to explain the South Carolina poll as well as why the Mason-Dixon pollsters shared their error data, where the USA Today / Gallup Poll people did not. One can argue that the latest USA Today Gallup Poll has a huge margin of error considering the games they play with these polls. This is totally irresponsible on the part of USA Today and Gallup.
Now it appears that Newport and Gallup are at it again, and once again with the USA Today. The credit for this discovery goes to DailyKos blogger Dick Driver, who explained that normally Gallup uses "registered voters" as the basis for its poll surveys but for a USA Today poll after the Republican National Convention, Gallup created a poll using the less accurate "likely voter" method.
How did Driver know this? Because he found Gallup's own notes explaining the problem. Here's what Driver wrote:
From Gallup:
Second, we are at this point reporting likely voter estimates on only an occasional basis. We feel that the trends among registered voters give us the best way to track election preferences in our daily poll, in part because many voters are not yet in a position to accurately estimate their chances of voting on Election Day. But from time to time, we do estimate (and report) likely voter results to give us a feel for the potential difference turnout could make in November. So far this summer, there have been occasions when -- as was the case this past weekend after the GOP convention -- likely voters were decidedly more Republican. But there have also been occasions when there was little difference between the vote patterns of likely voters and those of registered voters.
In other words, Gallup is admitting the following:
At the time it released the September 8th poll (showing McCain up by 10), it believed institutionally that likely voter results were less accurate than registered voter results.
Likely voter results have only occasionally diverged from the registered voter results.
Despite these facts, Gallup deliberately chose to release, to the widest fanfare possible, a poll using an admittedly less accurate method (the likely voter method) at the time of McCain's maximum convention bounce, knowing that it would show a large divergence (+10 for McCain vs. only +4 with registered voters) based on the likely voter method, even though such a divergence is not often present.
In short, they combined all possible factors in McCain's favor to make his lead seem as big as possible -- and the media went wild with it.
But the problem does not end there.
The Democratic Party has an advantage of 11 million more registered voters than the Republican Party and the margin keeps growing. But that difference is not reflected in the polls. The reason, according to Seth Coulter Walls in the Huffington Post, is that "Party ID" -- who's Democrat, Republican, etc -- is estimated as either 50 / 50 or in some cases with Republicans ahead. That's not what reality tells us, but the poll results reflect a closer race that the true totals of registered Democrats and Republicans show. And that shows a possible landslide victory for Senator's Barack Obama and Joe Biden if the Obama camp's get out the vote strategy works as well as it seems that it will come election day.
Sunday, September 07, 2008
McCain Now Leads Obama In Gallup 48 to 45 Points Today
After the Republican Convention Senator John McCain now leads Senator Obama in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll for the weekend, 48 percent to 45 percent and mostly due to the newly-engaged conservative base excited over McCain's running mate, Governor Sarah Palin. But since this poll was conducted during the weekend days (today is the 7th), I think it reflects that more older people were at home to answer the phone.
By Tuesday, Senator Obama will recover his lead.
By Tuesday, Senator Obama will recover his lead.
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Palin No Impact On Poll: Obama Ahead By Seven Points 49 to 42 Percent
The speech by Alaska Governor and now GOP Vice Presidential Candidate Sarah Palin had no impact on Senator Barack Obama's lead in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll for September 4th 2008. Obama still leads by seven points today, 49 percent to 42 percent.
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Barack Obama Tops 50 Percent In Today's Gallup Poll
After a historic Democratic National Convention and the subsequent major misteps of the John McCain annoucement of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, today, Gallup's Daily Tracking Poll finds Senator Barack Obama at 50 points for the first time, with Senator McCain at 42 points.
If one looks at the Gallup Graph, it shows that Senator Obama picked up a point over 24 hours, and Senator McCain lost a point over the same time period, and as more negative information comes out about Governor Palin.
If one looks at the Gallup Graph, it shows that Senator Obama picked up a point over 24 hours, and Senator McCain lost a point over the same time period, and as more negative information comes out about Governor Palin.
Saturday, August 02, 2008
Gallup Fixing Polls Again? McCain Backers Older; College Students Ignored
The Gallup Poll for Friday reports a tie between John McCain and Barack Obama at 44 percent fo the first time, but I'm really skeptical of this because Gallup's Frank Newport came under fire for having a USA Today-Gallup lead for McCain, but not one for it's own daily polling.
Frank Newport has this nasty habit of ignoring college-age voters, which have been so important in this election. College-age voter turnout increased by as much as 20 to 25 percent during the 2008 primaries, and there's no reason to think this will not continue into the November election.
But Newport and his Gallup people misses this group. For example, this Gallup article on Obama and the highly educated focuses on adults out of college -- that's people who are older than 26 years old and more likely in their 40s and 50s and 60s. That's where McCain sees gains.
But it's wrong.
Frank Newport has this nasty habit of ignoring college-age voters, which have been so important in this election. College-age voter turnout increased by as much as 20 to 25 percent during the 2008 primaries, and there's no reason to think this will not continue into the November election.
But Newport and his Gallup people misses this group. For example, this Gallup article on Obama and the highly educated focuses on adults out of college -- that's people who are older than 26 years old and more likely in their 40s and 50s and 60s. That's where McCain sees gains.
But it's wrong.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Gallup And Rasmussen Polls Both Have Obama Ahead By A Hair
I just looked at both the Gallup and the Rasmussen daily tracking polls and Senator Barack Obama's ahead of Senator John McCain by just three percent in the first, 47 to 44 percent and one percent in the last, 45 to 44 percent. But I can't figure out why other than racism. That's the element not adressed, but I also believe that the number of young people polled is not in proportion to their numbers or turnout.
Both polls survey "likely voters" which tend to be older than 45 years of age, and that's where McCain does better. So, we're going to see these numbers -- wrong though they are -- for awhile. John McCain's making a lot of mistakes and the media's not hammering him on them, like talking about a country that does not exist, or today, saying that Iraq is on the boarder of Afghanistan when it's no where near it.
Either someone's not paying attention or they're just plain, well, it's got to be racism -- that's the only mental illness that could explain this.
Both polls survey "likely voters" which tend to be older than 45 years of age, and that's where McCain does better. So, we're going to see these numbers -- wrong though they are -- for awhile. John McCain's making a lot of mistakes and the media's not hammering him on them, like talking about a country that does not exist, or today, saying that Iraq is on the boarder of Afghanistan when it's no where near it.
Either someone's not paying attention or they're just plain, well, it's got to be racism -- that's the only mental illness that could explain this.
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Barack Obama Maintains Five - Point Lead In Gallup Daily Poll
For some reason, CNN's not reporting the Gallup Daily Poll, which shows Senator Barack Obama ahead of Senator John McCain by a consistent five points. Right now, it's 47 percent versus 42 percent. What bothers me is that the polls imply that there are equal number of registered Democrats and Republicans, when in point of fact, more Democrats have turned out to vote than Republicans.
What's going on?
More later.
Thursday, November 01, 2007
Americans Are Unhappy With America - USA Today / Gallup Poll
This USA Today article reads:
"In all, 72% of those surveyed in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Oct. 12-14 say they are dissatisfied with how things are going in the USA while just 26% are satisfied. Not since April have even one-third of Americans been happy with the country's course, the longest national funk in 15 years."
This sparks the sign of political change. But in what direction? Could it mean victory for Barack Obama or Ron Paul? It's hard to tell from the article's comments. But here's the rest of it:
raq dominates the political agenda. In the poll, four in 10 Americans volunteer that the Iraq war will be one of the most important issues determining their vote in 2008. That's more than twice as many who cite the second-ranking issue: health care.
Six in 10 call the invasion of Iraq a mistake, equal to the highest levels of anti-war feeling during the Vietnam conflict. Despite reports of progress after this year's rise in U.S. force levels, a majority say the situation in Iraq is getting worse for the United States. Only 16% say it's getting better.
In conversations at four locales across the nation — at a farmer's market in Salem, Ore., outside a public library in Phoenix, at a shopping mall and bus stop in downtown Milwaukee and in a roundtable at the New Jersey shore — Americans struggled over what to do next in Iraq.
Not one of several dozen people interviewed expressed optimism that the next president, whoever is elected, will be able to turn things around militarily or to extricate U.S. troops without significant complications, even chaos.
"The next person coming in, it's going to take him at least eight years to clean up," predicts Geraldine Buie, 49, a food-service worker in Milwaukee who wants U.S. troops withdrawn now.
"On the one hand, people say we should pull out, but if we just pull out, everything will collapse and we'll have done nothing," says Antonio Carlos, 24, a student in Phoenix. "We've been committed for six years. Are we going to give up already? But at the same time, do we have the money (to continue)? And do we want our people over there dying left and right?"
The satisfaction divide
Not everyone has a dismal view of the future, of course.
"I think things are going along fine," said Tanya Rider, 32, a medic from Salem, though she worries about her brother and best friend, both deployed to Iraq. "The job market is going up. There's less homeless people." (The National Alliance to End Homelessness says the difficulty of counting homeless people makes it hard to assess whether their numbers are falling.)
Predictably, those who rate the economy as good are much happier with the country's direction than those who rate it as poor. Affluent Americans are more satisfied than those with lower incomes. Conservatives are more satisfied than liberals, and men more than women.
Even in the most optimistic demographic category, however, a majority is dissatisfied with the country's direction — including, for instance, 55% of Republicans. Among Democrats, the conclusion is almost universal: 84% say things are on the wrong track.
"The war in Iraq is clearly a major drag on the public's sense of how the country's doing," says Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. "And there's a kind of longer-term impact of the economy. Overall the economy is doing quite well but the sense of insecurity, the sense of anxiety of what the future might hold — that's having a downward effect."
Assessments of the current economy, while downbeat, are no worse than they were one year before the presidential elections in 1992, 1996 and 2004.
What's driving today's negative mood is pessimism about the future: Two-thirds predict economic conditions are getting worse, by far the highest number since 1992.
At a roundtable discussion in Neptune, N.J., only one of the 11 participants was looking for a job; the rest were retired or employed, most in jobs they like.
But Bob Cohen, 61, said he was "scared looking around the corner at the demographics of the country" and the pressure the looming retirement of the baby boom generation will put on Social Security.
Tish Ferguson, 48, a global recruiting manager, says she "works in a market where we're worried about a recession."
Eugene Kelsey, 82, expressed alarm about the impact of illegal immigration on American culture.
Americans are glummer about the economy than economists are. By the traditional measure — back-to-back quarters of economic contraction — the nation isn't in a recession. Yet more than one-third of those surveyed say it is. Four in 10 say a recession is likely during the next year.
For many Americans, good economic news about steady growth and low unemployment and inflation has been overshadowed by the rising cost of gasoline, turmoil in the housing market and uncertainties about health care coverage.
"I keep hearing there are positive indicators in the economy," says Dave Hendrick, 30, an Americorps volunteer in Milwaukee. "I have a hard time understanding that when I see skyrocketing foreclosure rates."
There are significant differences in views of the economy by region. The mood is brightest in the Southwest and the Rocky Mountain states, where 46% rated the economy as good in an aggregation of seven Gallup Polls taken since May.
The mood is darkest in the Great Lakes, where just 31% called the economy good. Jobs are a big reason as the region tries to recover from the loss of manufacturing plants. Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the nation; Ohio the fifth highest.
People in the upper Midwest are "frustrated by the (national) debt, frustrated with the war, frustrated with the health care system that seems to be crumbling," says former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, who in August abandoned a bid for the Republican presidential nomination. "They want somebody to get something done. They don't like to see problems shunted aside, and that's what they see in Washington."
Both the president and Congress get historically low ratings, another sign of unhappiness with the nation's course and indicator of possible political upheaval ahead.
Since World War II, no party has managed to hold the White House when the incumbent president had a job-approval rating below 45% one year before the election. Bush's approval rating now: 32%.
Congress fares even worse. Its approval rating in August dipped to 18%, equaling the low point in the history of Gallup. It's now bumped up to a still-dismal 29%.
Ethics scandals and opposition to the Iraq war contributed to a Democratic takeover of the House and Senate in last November's elections, but Congress' ratings haven't significantly improved since then. Dissatisfaction is widespread and bipartisan: 76% of those surveyed say Congress has accomplished "not too much" or "nothing at all" this year. Among those, 73% blame both parties equally.
"In all, 72% of those surveyed in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Oct. 12-14 say they are dissatisfied with how things are going in the USA while just 26% are satisfied. Not since April have even one-third of Americans been happy with the country's course, the longest national funk in 15 years."
This sparks the sign of political change. But in what direction? Could it mean victory for Barack Obama or Ron Paul? It's hard to tell from the article's comments. But here's the rest of it:
raq dominates the political agenda. In the poll, four in 10 Americans volunteer that the Iraq war will be one of the most important issues determining their vote in 2008. That's more than twice as many who cite the second-ranking issue: health care.
Six in 10 call the invasion of Iraq a mistake, equal to the highest levels of anti-war feeling during the Vietnam conflict. Despite reports of progress after this year's rise in U.S. force levels, a majority say the situation in Iraq is getting worse for the United States. Only 16% say it's getting better.
In conversations at four locales across the nation — at a farmer's market in Salem, Ore., outside a public library in Phoenix, at a shopping mall and bus stop in downtown Milwaukee and in a roundtable at the New Jersey shore — Americans struggled over what to do next in Iraq.
Not one of several dozen people interviewed expressed optimism that the next president, whoever is elected, will be able to turn things around militarily or to extricate U.S. troops without significant complications, even chaos.
"The next person coming in, it's going to take him at least eight years to clean up," predicts Geraldine Buie, 49, a food-service worker in Milwaukee who wants U.S. troops withdrawn now.
"On the one hand, people say we should pull out, but if we just pull out, everything will collapse and we'll have done nothing," says Antonio Carlos, 24, a student in Phoenix. "We've been committed for six years. Are we going to give up already? But at the same time, do we have the money (to continue)? And do we want our people over there dying left and right?"
The satisfaction divide
Not everyone has a dismal view of the future, of course.
"I think things are going along fine," said Tanya Rider, 32, a medic from Salem, though she worries about her brother and best friend, both deployed to Iraq. "The job market is going up. There's less homeless people." (The National Alliance to End Homelessness says the difficulty of counting homeless people makes it hard to assess whether their numbers are falling.)
Predictably, those who rate the economy as good are much happier with the country's direction than those who rate it as poor. Affluent Americans are more satisfied than those with lower incomes. Conservatives are more satisfied than liberals, and men more than women.
Even in the most optimistic demographic category, however, a majority is dissatisfied with the country's direction — including, for instance, 55% of Republicans. Among Democrats, the conclusion is almost universal: 84% say things are on the wrong track.
"The war in Iraq is clearly a major drag on the public's sense of how the country's doing," says Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. "And there's a kind of longer-term impact of the economy. Overall the economy is doing quite well but the sense of insecurity, the sense of anxiety of what the future might hold — that's having a downward effect."
Assessments of the current economy, while downbeat, are no worse than they were one year before the presidential elections in 1992, 1996 and 2004.
What's driving today's negative mood is pessimism about the future: Two-thirds predict economic conditions are getting worse, by far the highest number since 1992.
At a roundtable discussion in Neptune, N.J., only one of the 11 participants was looking for a job; the rest were retired or employed, most in jobs they like.
But Bob Cohen, 61, said he was "scared looking around the corner at the demographics of the country" and the pressure the looming retirement of the baby boom generation will put on Social Security.
Tish Ferguson, 48, a global recruiting manager, says she "works in a market where we're worried about a recession."
Eugene Kelsey, 82, expressed alarm about the impact of illegal immigration on American culture.
Americans are glummer about the economy than economists are. By the traditional measure — back-to-back quarters of economic contraction — the nation isn't in a recession. Yet more than one-third of those surveyed say it is. Four in 10 say a recession is likely during the next year.
For many Americans, good economic news about steady growth and low unemployment and inflation has been overshadowed by the rising cost of gasoline, turmoil in the housing market and uncertainties about health care coverage.
"I keep hearing there are positive indicators in the economy," says Dave Hendrick, 30, an Americorps volunteer in Milwaukee. "I have a hard time understanding that when I see skyrocketing foreclosure rates."
There are significant differences in views of the economy by region. The mood is brightest in the Southwest and the Rocky Mountain states, where 46% rated the economy as good in an aggregation of seven Gallup Polls taken since May.
The mood is darkest in the Great Lakes, where just 31% called the economy good. Jobs are a big reason as the region tries to recover from the loss of manufacturing plants. Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the nation; Ohio the fifth highest.
People in the upper Midwest are "frustrated by the (national) debt, frustrated with the war, frustrated with the health care system that seems to be crumbling," says former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, who in August abandoned a bid for the Republican presidential nomination. "They want somebody to get something done. They don't like to see problems shunted aside, and that's what they see in Washington."
Both the president and Congress get historically low ratings, another sign of unhappiness with the nation's course and indicator of possible political upheaval ahead.
Since World War II, no party has managed to hold the White House when the incumbent president had a job-approval rating below 45% one year before the election. Bush's approval rating now: 32%.
Congress fares even worse. Its approval rating in August dipped to 18%, equaling the low point in the history of Gallup. It's now bumped up to a still-dismal 29%.
Ethics scandals and opposition to the Iraq war contributed to a Democratic takeover of the House and Senate in last November's elections, but Congress' ratings haven't significantly improved since then. Dissatisfaction is widespread and bipartisan: 76% of those surveyed say Congress has accomplished "not too much" or "nothing at all" this year. Among those, 73% blame both parties equally.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
77 Percent Of Americans Approve Of Marriage Between Blacks And Whites
That's according to a video by The Gallup Group and presented by Dr. Frank Newport, editor and chief of the Gallup Group. The video also reports that Independents are more supportive over Democrats or Republicans. It also says that Blacks are more supportive than Whites. Additionally, the older a person is over 50 years of age, the more likely they are not to support marriage between Blacks and Whites.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
USA Today Gallup Poll Rigged To Favor Clinton
I've written this before and it bears reminders that the USA Today / Gallup Poll can't be trusted in the wake of the June "redo." That was an outrage and should not go unnoticed.
Frank Newport of Gallup openly admitted he redid the poll because he could not believe Senator Barack Obama was tied with Senator Hillary Clinton.
Frank Newport of Gallup openly admitted he redid the poll because he could not believe Senator Barack Obama was tied with Senator Hillary Clinton.
Monday, June 18, 2007
June 17th USA Today / Gallup Poll Rigged - Redone To Place Clinton Ahead
Question: Why are you a Democrat? Click for answers here.
OK. Get this. Just get this. Two weeks ago, Senator Barack Obama was tied -- that's right, tied -- with Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic Presidential race in the then latest USA Today / Gallup Poll. Now, USA Today / Gallup didn't do a poll in May, and certainly not two weeks apart, but this new one says that Senator Clinton has a large lead.
What?
The critical eye would have a question. I've got several. But the bottom line is the second round of polling was rigged. Why? Because someone didn't like the outcome and doesn't want Senator Barack Obama to win, so they immediately ordered another poll and worked to obtain results they wanted to see.
The poll effort was rigged. That's right, rigged.
You can't even find the poll on the Gallup website. How in the hell can you explain the supposed "double-digit lead" Senator Clinton has, but then she's behind in South Carolina? That observation about the black vote being the reason is pure bull shit.
Don't believe it because there's no proof for it.
This is what the USA Today's "Gallup Guru" , Frank Newport, reported in his blog - the smoking gun, in part, is here:
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Clinton, Obama, immigration and Russian attitudes
New polling data from several survey organizations – including pending data from Gallup -- make it clear that Sen. Hillary Clinton is maintaining or strengthening her lead for the presidential nomination over Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats. Our early June USA Today/Gallup poll showed the two tied, as discussed here and here. But that finding apparently did not signify a significant change in the structure of the race. The latest polls from the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal/NBC show Clinton in her accustomed role as leader when Democrats are asked whom they want to be their party’s nominee. It looks as if the June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll either picked up a short term change, or as noted here, was a function of unusual sampling which happened to pick up Democrats who were more pro-Obama than the underlying population.
We have a Gallup poll now in the field, with results to be reported early next week. Preliminary indications are that this poll will find Clinton back in her typical leadership position as she has been for the most part this year.
What? In other words, Whoops! We can't believe the outcome, so we've got to talk to a new set of people and get the outcome we want. We can't -- just can't -- be forced to report that Senator Obama is tied with Senator Clinton.
What the Gallup Guru does not explain is why they did a new poll so close after the first one, and without having done a poll two weeks before?
I'll tell you why. Because USA Today and CNN are reporting these polls and don't want Senator Barack Obama to win the Democratic race for the White House.
They don't want a president who happens to be Black, and so they're trying to engineer a win for Senator Clinton. First, CNN consistently focuses on the race issue, then reports any small seemingly negative information about Senator Obama. Any positive information is either downplayed or avoided altogether, or rigged, as in the case of this polling process.
I think the USA Today, CNN, and Gallup all should appologize to Senator Barack Obama. I seriously doubt Frank Newport just decided to do a new poll -- the USA Today paid him to do a new poll because they didn't like the outcome of the first one.
That's crass. Noam Chomsky was right in his classic work "Manufacturing Consent" -- the old media (USA Today) is trying to manipulate the public.
They have to explain the South Carolina poll as well as why the Mason-Dixon pollsters shared their error data, where the USA Today / Gallup Poll people did not. One can argue that the latest USA Today Gallup Poll has a huge margin of error considering the games they play with these polls. This is totally irresponsible on the part of USA Today and Gallup.
OK. Get this. Just get this. Two weeks ago, Senator Barack Obama was tied -- that's right, tied -- with Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic Presidential race in the then latest USA Today / Gallup Poll. Now, USA Today / Gallup didn't do a poll in May, and certainly not two weeks apart, but this new one says that Senator Clinton has a large lead.
What?
The critical eye would have a question. I've got several. But the bottom line is the second round of polling was rigged. Why? Because someone didn't like the outcome and doesn't want Senator Barack Obama to win, so they immediately ordered another poll and worked to obtain results they wanted to see.
The poll effort was rigged. That's right, rigged.
You can't even find the poll on the Gallup website. How in the hell can you explain the supposed "double-digit lead" Senator Clinton has, but then she's behind in South Carolina? That observation about the black vote being the reason is pure bull shit.
Don't believe it because there's no proof for it.
This is what the USA Today's "Gallup Guru" , Frank Newport, reported in his blog - the smoking gun, in part, is here:
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Clinton, Obama, immigration and Russian attitudes
New polling data from several survey organizations – including pending data from Gallup -- make it clear that Sen. Hillary Clinton is maintaining or strengthening her lead for the presidential nomination over Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats. Our early June USA Today/Gallup poll showed the two tied, as discussed here and here. But that finding apparently did not signify a significant change in the structure of the race. The latest polls from the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal/NBC show Clinton in her accustomed role as leader when Democrats are asked whom they want to be their party’s nominee. It looks as if the June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll either picked up a short term change, or as noted here, was a function of unusual sampling which happened to pick up Democrats who were more pro-Obama than the underlying population.
We have a Gallup poll now in the field, with results to be reported early next week. Preliminary indications are that this poll will find Clinton back in her typical leadership position as she has been for the most part this year.
What? In other words, Whoops! We can't believe the outcome, so we've got to talk to a new set of people and get the outcome we want. We can't -- just can't -- be forced to report that Senator Obama is tied with Senator Clinton.
What the Gallup Guru does not explain is why they did a new poll so close after the first one, and without having done a poll two weeks before?
I'll tell you why. Because USA Today and CNN are reporting these polls and don't want Senator Barack Obama to win the Democratic race for the White House.
They don't want a president who happens to be Black, and so they're trying to engineer a win for Senator Clinton. First, CNN consistently focuses on the race issue, then reports any small seemingly negative information about Senator Obama. Any positive information is either downplayed or avoided altogether, or rigged, as in the case of this polling process.
I think the USA Today, CNN, and Gallup all should appologize to Senator Barack Obama. I seriously doubt Frank Newport just decided to do a new poll -- the USA Today paid him to do a new poll because they didn't like the outcome of the first one.
That's crass. Noam Chomsky was right in his classic work "Manufacturing Consent" -- the old media (USA Today) is trying to manipulate the public.
They have to explain the South Carolina poll as well as why the Mason-Dixon pollsters shared their error data, where the USA Today / Gallup Poll people did not. One can argue that the latest USA Today Gallup Poll has a huge margin of error considering the games they play with these polls. This is totally irresponsible on the part of USA Today and Gallup.
Monday, June 11, 2007
Gallup Poll - Senator Obama Ties Hillary Clinton In USA Today / Gallup Poll
In a USA Today / Gallup Poll conducted June 5th, Senator Barack Obama has tied Senator Hillary Clinton. According to Gallup, "The poll was conducted June 1-3, 2007, and almost all of the interviews were completed prior to the Democratic candidate debate held in New Hampshire on Sunday, June 3. Republican candidates will debate one another in New Hampshire on Tuesday night, June 5...
The poll asked Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party who they are most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president next year. Obama and Clinton are now tied, with 30% supporting Obama and 29% supporting Clinton. Seventeen percent of Democrats support former Vice President Al Gore for the nomination, and 11% support former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. No other candidate registers better than 3% support.
The poll asked Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party who they are most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president next year. Obama and Clinton are now tied, with 30% supporting Obama and 29% supporting Clinton. Seventeen percent of Democrats support former Vice President Al Gore for the nomination, and 11% support former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. No other candidate registers better than 3% support.
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