The Big Game
Here's how.
First, some sobering observations. The Stanford Cardinal carry the same 7 and 3 overall record into this game. Cal is 4 and 3 in the Pac-10; Stanford is 6 and 2. So in terms of record, Stanford and Cal are the same, but this game's important for Cal because it could place them at even with the Cardinal in the Pac-10 from a loss standpoint. And Stanford and Cal are 17th and 25th respectively in the BCS rankings. So Cal has motivation and a way to beat the Cardinal.
Stanford has one glaring weakness that Cal must take advantage of: Quarterback Andy Luck.
(Yes. Luck is the weak link for the Cardinal. I know some of you scoff at my claim and mightly, but I argue forcefully that Luck can't carry a whole game for the Cardinal and win. The running game makes him a better quarterback.)
Unlike Kevin Riley, who's completion percentage virtually dictates if Cal wins or loses, Andy Luck's numbers have nothing to do with Stanford wins; in his last three games, including the blow-outs of Oregon and USC, he was below 65 percent in pass completion rate. Against USC, he was 12-of-22 for 144 yards passing and two touchdowns. Not superhuman numbers.
What this tells me is I can develop a game plan that places the ball in Luck's hands and forces Stanford to throw, where they're not as successful as when they run. Stanford uses the run to set up the pass, but so much so it's better to use eight-defenders, play tight coverage, blitz one or two backers (not more) - smother the run game, and force the pass.
Stanford's receivers both have over 16 yards average per catch, so throwing short is not Stanford's habit; blitz the Cardinal. (And blitz on the offenses left side where Stanford has had protection problems all year long with the injuries to their left tackle Allen Smith.)
Toby Gerhard, Stanford's terrific running back, is second in the nation in rushing with 1395 yards on 262 carries for a 5.3 yard average and 19 touchdowns. Stop him and Cal stops the Cardinal.
But stopping Gerhard also means keeping the ball away from Stanford, and Cal can do that but it must be willing to commit to throwing the ball short and often. If Cal can concentrate on installing high-percentage passes and working toward a 60-40 run-pass play mix it can move the ball downfield to score.
Where Cal gets into major trouble is in trying to force the deep throw and what bothers me is some of the passing plays of that variety lack an appropriate safety valve for the quarterback; a running back just running a short pattern.
The most successful pass plays against Stanford actually come out of spread dive play fakes (as Arizona runs and Cal does have in its playbook), pulling the linebackers in. So, play action passing is the way to focus on gaining yardage against Stanford.
But again, Cal can't get greedy in trying to gain yardage. (Got that Cal Offensive Coordinator Andy Ludwig?) The Golden Bears must focus on gaining four to six yards per play and let the plays open the way for more yardage after the catch or a missed tackle on a running play.
The only place where I break that rule is the opening play. Cal must make a statement here. It must say to the Cardinal, "We're here to blow you out of your house." The best way to do that is open the game with a flea-flicker.
Cal Coach Jeff Tedford was once known for trick plays (in fact he opened his Cal career with a flea-flicker against Baylor seven years ago) but hasn't called many this year, really almost none. A dive-play, toss back to the quarterback who throws to the split end out of a running formation, will fire up Cal players and fans, and it might just work for a touchdown because Cal's not done it this year.
That's just the "punch in the gut" that will lead to a Cal victory. Anything less, even a reverse, is just not daring and not what this game calls for. After all, it's the Big Game.
Cal can win the game, 30 to 21. If my pattern is used, Cal will go up by as much as two touchdowns before Stanford's running game takes hold, but then and because runs eat clock time, it will be too late.
Bears win!
(Hey Alumni! It's BIG GAME week! Get fired up!)
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