Is the Senate Democratic majority up for grabs?

Is the Senate Democratic majority up for grabs? A great many political pundits have been asking that question in recent weeks. As of today, polls show Republican candidates running clearly ahead in four or five Senate seats now held by Democrats, with another six Democratic seats falling into the "toss-up" category.

Control of the Senate will largely depend on the outcome of those toss-up races. The Republicans have a path to majority control, but it will require sweeping every one of the closest contests.

Although much of the discussion of the 2010 midterms have focused on vulnerable House Democrats in competitive or GOP-leaning districts, after the “do nothing” Senate of 2010, GOP winning back the Senate majority can do the most harm, following the election, via a “lame duck” session this fall and then again throughout the 2011 session.

Nevada, Washington State and California, still remain the closest Senate races in the country, with the Democrats maintaining a slim lead in the polls for each state.

Currently, the Democratic Senate Caucus has 59 members: 57 elected as Democrats plus independents Bernie Sanders (VT) and Joe Lieberman (CN). To be assured a majority, the Republicans would need to gain 10 seats, since Vice President Biden would vote with the Democrats to break a 50-to-50 tie on any legislation.

So, how many seats would the Republicans gain if the election were held today? Check the charts above to see the current trends.

Republican candidates currently hold huge leads in four states now represented by Democrats: North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana and Delaware. In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey leads by just slightly more than 5 percentage points (45.7% to 40.6%).

The latest polls show closer "toss-up" margins in another six states held by Democratic Senators: Colorado, Wisconsin, Washington, Illinois, California and Nevada. That said, Republicans would need to win five of those six contests and prevail in two similarly close contests in states currently represented by Republicans (Florida and Kentucky) to gain control of the Senate.

Remember, in late August 2006, it certainly looked like Democrats faced an uphill battle to win control of the Senate. At the time, Republican candidates led by low single-digit margins in most polls, yet the Democrats ultimately gained enough support to over the course of the fall campaign to win the 51 seats necessary to gain control of the Senate.

The morale of this story is not to let the polls dictate how you vote in November. Do your homework, as a voter and do not count on campaign commercials or biased media coverage to sway you in any certain direction. Decide for yourselves if you are represented best by the GOP (which only seems to care about the rich and big corporations) or if you should keep the Democrats in power to try and finish the job of fixing what it took George W. Bush 8 years to break.