One week later - NOT a post-mortem for Democrats

Democrats took a shellacking, and it's partly my fault -- not because I took time away from journalism to help manage a Congressional Campaign against an incumbent Republican in Minnesota's Second Congressional District, rather because I failed to engage more people in the process.

Look, both major parties have a collection of loyal supporters who consistently identify as a Democrat or a Republican, and many of them turn out reliably to vote even in non-Presidential elections. Polls prior to November revealed Democrats were dis-spirited, Republicans were angry, and those coveted swing-voters (and the capital "I" Independents) had largely lost their enthusiasm.

It wasn't about facts, of course, it was about spin. Logic would suggest (if not mandate) more voters would align with Democrats - Obama had wrenched the economy out of a death-spiral, lowered taxes for most people, lowered the deficit, lowered the troop presence in Iraq, started the process of restoring the cost-benefit ratio of our health care system, and jobs were finally being created faster than they were getting lost.

Meanwhile, the media gave play to every story blaming the state of the economy on Democrats or the White House (hey, they didn't say they believed the story-teller, they just reported that's what was being said, right?) and let the Republican talking points about lower taxes creating jobs echo over and over even though that correlation has been dis-proven repeatedly: it certainly hadn't done so while Bush was in office for 8 years (but hey, the media never said they believed that, or talked about the wealth-gap, and they even let a few people point out that demand is the more logical driver of job-creation, but lots of photogenic people with convincing smiles and voices were talking about how taxes and uncertainty kept rich guys from wanting to hire people. They "covered" what was being "said" right?)

Bush oversaw record growth in government? Well, obviously that's the Democrats fault for caving in, don't they know how to run a filibuster? I mean, big government is bad, right? Unless it provides for our military defense, or social security, or Federal disaster recovery funds, or interstate highways, or border patrols and immigration enforcement, or keeping our toys from being painted with lead, or.... oh never mind.

Earmarks, we all know earmarks are bad, right? They account for nearly 1% of the Federal budget, and if there's one thing we know it's that if we all had 1% more of our money that goes to taxes we'd be just fine now, right? Not so much?

The point is: voting is not about logic. Advertisers have known that logic lets us rationalize our choices for centuries, and modern politicians have long understood there are two fundamentally different parts of holding elected office: there's the campaign - which doesn't remotely test the skills necessary to govern, that's the GETTING into the office part though - and then there's the rest of it, the actual wielding of power while in office.  Successful politicians master both, although there's no one "right" way to do either.

I failed to engage or electrify enough voters in my area; so the cable-TV watching middle class, convinced to vote by a carefully-crafted message laden with buzzwords focus-tested by so-called Conservative strategists that Obama and his "agenda" were leading the country to ruin, elected Republicans in droves in Minnesota.

Remember 2000, when we elected Bush? He was the sort of guy people thought they'd like to have a beer with. Now Minnesota voters face a recount for the Governor because they were reassured by a guy who tried to lower drunk-driving penalties after he got cited for that very offence, because he's told them the $6 BILLION deficit our current (Republican) governor proclaimed as a crisis is mostly just an accounting and spending problem... although he can't explain just how that's going to work, but it's very, very reassuring that somebody knows it can be fixed if voters just trust Republicans.

Post-mortem? No, if there was logic in the outcome of the November 2nd elections it might rise to that level; from here on the ground in Minnesota, looking at the numbers, and the facts, it's a wake-up call for Democrats: they were out-strategized. (Yes, I know, I made that word up. You're one of those logical people, aren't you?) Worse yet, there were voices they could have heeded.

Voters were, in a word, hoodwinked. Democratic politicians lost ground by losing lots of elections to a bunch of slick, experienced, successful Used Country Salesmen. And right here in Minnesota, it's partly my fault.

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, political strategist, and photographer who recently worked as the Campaign Manager on the Madore For Congress campaign in Minnesota's 2nd District. He contributes regularly to a host of other web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community. He'll be more active again here at Zennie's now, unless maybe there's a vote recount in an important election in Minnesota.  Oh, wait...

Can Democrats swing a district in MN?

The FEC Quarterly reports reveal that lots of money on both sides of the Bachmann-Clark race in Minnesota's 6th District came from outside the state. Tarryl Clark raised a nearly mind-blowing $910,000 in the second quarter. But if it's all about money Michelle Bachmann's evidently got the election in hand, since she raised $2,000,000 (more than double Clark) in the same period.

Democrats better hope it's not all about money in the Minnesota 6th; they certainly know the census-based redistricting can't come in time to change the 2010 election.

Is there hope in MN?

The other side of the Twin Cities metro might be the Democrat's real hope for a pickup. GOP U.S. Representative John Kline's a low-profile guy who simply votes the party line. He has nowhere near the war-chest that Bachmann does despite the nearly identical voting record, and the MN Second District is not the Bachmann's Sixth in terms of voter demographics.

But there are rumors (in blog comments at MN Publius about the fund-raising in the 6th) Republicans had a subtle ace in the hole more effective than Bachmann's high-profile fund-raising in the 6th -- that they slipped a former Republican who voted for Bush and allegedly recently "fell into politics" past the DFL/Democrat's vetting in the 2nd, resulting in an easy opponent for Kline (if Dan Powers clears the primary.)

If Minnesota Democrats sleep through the August primary despite the real contest for the Governor's race, even Kline is safe in a district considerably more likely to swing than the sixth, and Obama will have to look elsewhere to balance the seats the GOP is likely to pick up nationwide in the U.S. House of Representatives in November.

Let's face it, with Bachmann getting national press coverage and raising twice the money?  The complaints the GOP made about Al Franken getting money from outside Minnesota will be forgotten, and her media success will have let Kline stay beneath the radar yet again, while Tarryl Clark fights the good fight in a solidly Republican district against increasingly greater focus by major GOP money.

Rumors?
What else have you got?

I'm doing what I can to raise the profile of former State Representative Shelley Madore prior to the primary in the Second District - she's a proven leader with a lot more in her repertoire than talking points. Madore, with endorsements by the NEA, the American Federation of Teachers, and Education Minnesota, brought common sense solutions that fostered job creation and transportation improvements to the entire region.  She's got the drive and experience to go to D.C., but thus far the media and donors are distracted by the lop-sided, quixotic drama in MN's gerry-mandered Sixth.

The Bottom Line

Just as with the Franken-Coleman Senate race, it's arguable interest from outside Minnesota dwarfs the in-state enthusiasm for political fights yet again. Even with a remarkable 24,000 donors Clark obviously isn't getting financial support from the vast majority of Minnesotans.

In the name of full disclosure I should state that I have donated to the Clark campaign even though she's not in my district (I live in the MN Second) and to both the Madore and Powers campaigns.  But the numbers show I'm not representative in that way.

I'm also not a non-partisan striving for utterly objective reporting.  I'm opinionated. I don't think Kline represents my district neighbors well enough, so I joined Madore's staff even though she got in the race late and isn't blessed by the party insiders.

Donors control who makes it onto the ballot, because without visibility the voters don't bother. That's why special interest money happens. Now, I may or may not have persuaded you Madore's chances against Kline are better than Clark's against Bachmann, but let me be totally clear about one thing.  The bottom line really is that campaigns need money, so here's a grassroots-style idea for those of you who made it this far in my long-winded post:  Donate $10 to my favorite underdog, and $25 to another campaign you care about. That's how you make your voice matter. If not now, when? 

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, political staffer, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

Governor's Round Table

On Monday, I had the pleasure of sitting in on a roundtable led by three members of the Democratic Governors' Association:

Gov. Joe Manchin, WV, Chair of the DGA
Gov. Brian Schweitzer, MT, Vice Chair of the DGA
Gov. Martin O'Malley, MD, Finance Chair of the DGA

While it's always important to the DGA to capture more Governors' seats, it's especially important in the 2010 elections when we head into redistricting. Right now, Democrats hold a majority of Governorships, at 28, for the first time since 1992. Gov. Manchin seemed quite confident that that number could rise to 29 or maybe even as high as 31 by the end of the election cycle in 2010.

While the importance of redistricting seemed to be the overall take away from the round table, my overall take away was how fantastic Gov. Schweitzer is. I love how he uses language, saying that the race between Obama and McCain in his state is, "dead danged tied right now." Talking on the issue of oil as it relates to the energy corridor in the Rocky Mountain West, Schweitzer said, "Obama realizes that the most important barrel of oil is the one you don’t use and the one you don’t import." Finally, when asked about the possibility of McCain picking a Republican Governor as his running mate, Schweitzer let loose this gem, "Boy, that would shake up the world if McCain picked another white guy to be the vice president." I love Gov. Schweitzer.