GOP Congressman Kline dodges veterans

Congressman John Kline (R-MN) was conspicuously absent from the Goodhue County United Veterans Organizations "Candidate's Forum" in his district last night. The forum was not far from where Kline has made his home since relocating from Texas. Do you suppose he didn't want to have to explain the disconnect between his rhetoric and his votes?

Why would a former Marine officer serving in Congress not vote to support funding for Veterans Affairs?  I don't know; since action speaks louder than words maybe vets and other voters just learned how little Kline cares for the honest, working Minnesotans in his adopted District.

Former MN Representative Shelley Madore: Cannon Falls VFW
Goodhue county United Veterans Organization Candidate Forum

Kline's opponent, former State Rep. Shelley Madore was certainly there, joining candidates at all levels from Governor through county offices to meet with vets and their families and talk about needs and priorities.  Madore's record in the Minnesota House shows a dedication to Veterans that you might expect Kline to want to counter in front of a receptive audience. Considering his startling anti-veteran votes on spending for Veterans Affairs he'd better find some friendly audience or Madore's "35 Cent Tour," which is gaining traction with the media and the voters, will become the story of the election.

Republicans, following President Bush's lead, led this country into an economic quagmire pursuing wars of choice while protecting big banks and special interests, but that's no reason for Kline to dodge his military family constituents.  Leaders get out and talk to voters, and if necessary explain why they made bad decisions, but Kline evidently lacks the commitment to the veterans in the district to face those tough questions.

True leaders don't sit back and spout ideology when the chips are down, they roll up their sleeves and take ownership of the challenges and problems.  They lead by example, not by talking points.  The men and women who put on this country's uniform deserve the respect of all of us, but a former officer couldn't be bothered to attend their forum?

The November election across the Twin Cities metro from the Bachmann-Clark contest will be a choice between a former marine officer who voted against defense department funding and now deliberately dodges veterans and a former legislator who's visiting every community in the district at every opportunity to make sure her constituents know how hard she works.

Ask the folks who went to Farmfest if their current Representative cares about farmers. Kline ignored that invitation, too, while Shelley Madore, who grew up on a farm and may already know more about the challenges than he does, made the trip and talked to farmers.  It's beginning to look like a pattern, with Kline avoiding any unscripted appearances while Madore shows she knows how to reach voters and has the courage to talk to them face to face.

The choice for voters is increasingly clear: Kline's content to sit at home, while Shelly Madore continues to show she'll work harder and do more.

Thomas Hayes is a political strategist currently managing the Madore for Congress campaign, entrepreneur, journalist, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

MN voters going Blue

Republican incumbent John Kline's getting worried in Minnesota's Second District, because with all eyes on the Bachmann race, a pro-business Democrat, former MN State Representative Shelley Madore, has a message that resonates with fiscally conservative voters.

Madore, recently endorsed by Clean Water Action, ascribes her primary victory earlier this month to her "35 Cent Tour" highlighting that an imbalance of federal tax dollars promoted by Kline is undermining job creation and business investment. The facts support her position.

While Minnesota averages 77¢ back for every dollar we spend in federal taxes, the Second is only getting back 35¢ - which moves the burden for key projects in the community onto other revenue sources, such as property taxes.

"Mr. Kline has refused to request Federal tax dollars for important community projects, even when asked by our trusted county, city and school leaders...”

Shelley J. Madore

There's a belief that Republican ideology is better for the business climate.  Madore's opponent has also adopted an "earmarks are all pork" theory that's clearly costing his district a fair share of federal dollars.

Last week, in "How does Minnesota stack up in business taxation? Pretty well, it turns out" Sharon Schmickle (minnpost blog) pointed out the facts and figures indicate Minnesota's effective tax rates for businesses are somewhat less than neighboring Wisconsin, Iowa, or South Dakota, and substantially less - approaching HALF - the effective rate in North Dakota.

Yet North Dakota's unemployment rate is the lowest in the country right now.

So if lowering taxes and keeping federal dollars out of the state or the District is the secret to creating jobs, why have 10,900 manufacturing jobs moved from MN's 2nd District to China?  That's the worst record for any Congressional District in the state.  Minnesota's population is growing, but Madore's District been shedding jobs on John Kline's watch, and he's just throwing political double-talk at the problem.

If sounding reasonable by relying on Republican talking points equated to "good for the District" John Kline would be just fine: his presentation of GOP rhetoric is polished, and his re-elections prove it's been persuasive in the past. But the fact is he's quietly voting for his ideological theory, not the people of the Second District, and now Madore has got the attention of the media - and the voters.

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, Democratic Campaign Manager, journalist, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

Can Democrats swing a district in MN?

The FEC Quarterly reports reveal that lots of money on both sides of the Bachmann-Clark race in Minnesota's 6th District came from outside the state. Tarryl Clark raised a nearly mind-blowing $910,000 in the second quarter. But if it's all about money Michelle Bachmann's evidently got the election in hand, since she raised $2,000,000 (more than double Clark) in the same period.

Democrats better hope it's not all about money in the Minnesota 6th; they certainly know the census-based redistricting can't come in time to change the 2010 election.

Is there hope in MN?

The other side of the Twin Cities metro might be the Democrat's real hope for a pickup. GOP U.S. Representative John Kline's a low-profile guy who simply votes the party line. He has nowhere near the war-chest that Bachmann does despite the nearly identical voting record, and the MN Second District is not the Bachmann's Sixth in terms of voter demographics.

But there are rumors (in blog comments at MN Publius about the fund-raising in the 6th) Republicans had a subtle ace in the hole more effective than Bachmann's high-profile fund-raising in the 6th -- that they slipped a former Republican who voted for Bush and allegedly recently "fell into politics" past the DFL/Democrat's vetting in the 2nd, resulting in an easy opponent for Kline (if Dan Powers clears the primary.)

If Minnesota Democrats sleep through the August primary despite the real contest for the Governor's race, even Kline is safe in a district considerably more likely to swing than the sixth, and Obama will have to look elsewhere to balance the seats the GOP is likely to pick up nationwide in the U.S. House of Representatives in November.

Let's face it, with Bachmann getting national press coverage and raising twice the money?  The complaints the GOP made about Al Franken getting money from outside Minnesota will be forgotten, and her media success will have let Kline stay beneath the radar yet again, while Tarryl Clark fights the good fight in a solidly Republican district against increasingly greater focus by major GOP money.

Rumors?
What else have you got?

I'm doing what I can to raise the profile of former State Representative Shelley Madore prior to the primary in the Second District - she's a proven leader with a lot more in her repertoire than talking points. Madore, with endorsements by the NEA, the American Federation of Teachers, and Education Minnesota, brought common sense solutions that fostered job creation and transportation improvements to the entire region.  She's got the drive and experience to go to D.C., but thus far the media and donors are distracted by the lop-sided, quixotic drama in MN's gerry-mandered Sixth.

The Bottom Line

Just as with the Franken-Coleman Senate race, it's arguable interest from outside Minnesota dwarfs the in-state enthusiasm for political fights yet again. Even with a remarkable 24,000 donors Clark obviously isn't getting financial support from the vast majority of Minnesotans.

In the name of full disclosure I should state that I have donated to the Clark campaign even though she's not in my district (I live in the MN Second) and to both the Madore and Powers campaigns.  But the numbers show I'm not representative in that way.

I'm also not a non-partisan striving for utterly objective reporting.  I'm opinionated. I don't think Kline represents my district neighbors well enough, so I joined Madore's staff even though she got in the race late and isn't blessed by the party insiders.

Donors control who makes it onto the ballot, because without visibility the voters don't bother. That's why special interest money happens. Now, I may or may not have persuaded you Madore's chances against Kline are better than Clark's against Bachmann, but let me be totally clear about one thing.  The bottom line really is that campaigns need money, so here's a grassroots-style idea for those of you who made it this far in my long-winded post:  Donate $10 to my favorite underdog, and $25 to another campaign you care about. That's how you make your voice matter. If not now, when? 

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, political staffer, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

Barton, Bachmann, and BP, oh my!

It's ironic that when voters think the President isn't getting enough done, they often use the off years to make it harder for him. Logic goes out the window - and if it happens this time...?

Veteran Texas Congressman Joe "BP" Barton is the ranking GOP member (and former chair) of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.  That means if the Republicans gain a simple majority of seats in the House, Barton is the heir-apparent for the chairmanship. You can bet your BP that big oil is looking forward to that day, even if they only make it partway in November of 2010.

Consider the 2^nd District in Minnesota, where a below-the-radar Congressman, John Kline, is hoping nobody will notice how closely his votes parallel Bachmann and Barton's.  As his challenger Shelley Madore (a former MN House Rep) has been saying since she announced her campaign for U.S. Congress in January of this year, Kline is no less extreme than Michelle Bachmann of the 6th District if you look at his votes. Kline, on the opposite side of the Twin Cities metro from the infamous Bachmann, is just Michelle in sheep's clothing.

And I use "sheep's clothing" with all seriousness, because John Kline has done almost nothing but follow the GOP herd during his entire time in office.

We all know that the "off years" are when the party that doesn't hold the presidency traditionally gains traction. People realize the President can't actually get done everything they hoped he could, and so they decide to make it harder for him.

What? You were expecting logic from the voters?

Here's a simple truth: Most folks vote for a gut reason, not a head reason.  They can cite reasons that sound logical, but the truth is they mostly vote for politicians they like, or they think they'd like to have a beer with.

Here's more simple truth: The GOP is about to spend a lot of money in key races, including big oil money, and the more headway they make the less Washington stands up to Wall Street, big oil, big mining, the insurance companies, or any other big business.

The GOP has decided to prove that government is ineffective, as part of their "small government" platform that sounds so good until you realize that only our elected leaders -- our government -- has sufficient power to hold BP accountable.  The Free Market economy sure the heck can't do it, as we proved by deregulating Wall Street (with predictable, and now well-documented, results.)

Will voters pick the party of Joe "BP" Barton and Michelle Bachmann, with their faithful flock of followers such as John Kline to take on the aftermath of the disaster in the Gulf?  Opinions vary, but I'd rather see folks running the government who not only know how to get things done, but who believe there's more to being in Congress than saying the government should apologize and get out of BP's business.

That's why I like Shelley Madore's track record, and leadership, and her chances running against a "below the radar" extremist in Minnesota (where, let's face it, all eyes are on the Bachmann~Clark contest, and massive amounts of money are being raised and spent.) It's time for proven, effective leadership that knows how to partner with small businesses, not bail out and apologize for big business.

I hope voters like that kind of candidate this time around.

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, political staffer, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

Palin proves TIMING is EVERYTHING - again.

Sarah Palin burst into the national consciousness almost two years ago, and for a short while news services could talk of nothing else, and following the VP candidates debate pundits said she'd won because she didn't completely blow it. By November the bump Palin provided McCain's ratings faded as the country learned more about his new running-mate, and U.S. voters elected the Illinois Senator with the "funny name and big ears." It wasn't so long after Obama's night in Grant Park that Palin calculated her title as Governor of Alaska was more of a hindrance to her career than a help, remember?

Most of the pundits assure us that Tea Party activists (or at least coverage of them on TV) bolstered by Palin's photogenic smile tipped the balance against incumbent Utah Senator Robert Bennett when he failed to secure his party's nomination at a state convention.

Naturally, Palin has bestowed her Tea Party blessing on John "Complete the Danged Fence" McCain, yet by all accounts McCain is in danger of being upset in a primary. There's no question Arizona is currently the focus of the immigration storm in the U.S., but it's shaping up as the epicenter of the anti-incumbent earthquake since McCain's well-documented "toughening" of his rhetoric on that issue hasn't staved off the challenge from former congressman/talk show radio host J.D. Hayworth.

Like former President Bush, as recently as 2007 mavericky Senator McCain had championed less-extreme solutions to immigration reform before consulting the tea leaves and getting his position right. Unlike Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter, McCain's not in a primary today, but he may wish he was as Hayworth continues to make inroads in McCain's lead. By the time the late August Arizona primary happens the Palin endorsement will be ancient history, and McCain's staff will be struggling to dominate the news cycle much the way Specter's struggled to be "bigger news" than Joe Sestak.

The "re-assignment" of Campaign Manager Shiree Verdone and Aide Mike Hellon reveals just how precarious McCain's situation really is -- and that demonstrates how little impact Palin's early endorsement had. Given her own notoriety it's hard to say if Michelle Bachmann is getting any boost from her connection to Palin, but she's already worried about the Democratic front runner, State Senator Tarryl Clark, who hasn't even secured her place on the November ballot yet (MN primary: August 10th.)

Palin's endorsement may not be enough to preserve McCain's power. Specter's calculated change of parties hasn't looked very effective. Bachmann's running negative ads before her own presumed challenger has even won the primary. Meanwhile the Obama administration is moving forward fast on Wall Street reform, and the unholy trinity of BP, Haliburton, and Transocean squandered that same administration's willingness to let off-shore exploration move ahead.

Drill, baby, drill? Timing is everything.

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, political staffer, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

Is Bachmann covertly part of anti-Stupak Pushback?

Bart Stupak's (D-MI) amendment to the Affordable Health Care for America [AHCA] Act introduces restrictions on access to abortion more severe than were passed previously, including during the Bush presidency. With broad agreement from voices as diverse as Michelle Bachmann, Joseph Stiglitz, and President Obama that something needs to be done to rein in health care overhead so that our money is spent effectively and more regular families don't face bankruptcy due to medical costs, (what Bachmann calls providing a "safety net" for the uninsured,) there may be a severe backlash to this amendment that made a late entry into the process.

We know Congress has realized there's enormous pressure to make real changes, as the chart shows (click to enlarge.) Clearly the White House has been doing extensive work behind the scenes despite both branches of Congress drafting their own bills.

"There's going to be a firestorm here. Women are going to realize that a Democratic-controlled House has passed legislation that would prohibit women paying for abortions with their own funds."

U.S. Representative Diana DeGette (D-CO)

Representative DeGette has helped author an open letter signed by 40 Democratic congresswomen demanding that these restrictions be taken out of the final bill. The AHCA Act contains numerous excellent provisions, helping protect Medicare subscribers and addressing the need for more primary care providers, for instance, but the last minute inclusion of gubernatorial hopeful Stupak's language has stirred outrage among those who think there's too much government interference already.  What's next - restricting funds for elective procedures such as cosmetic surgery following injuries?

For her part MN Rep. Michelle Bachmann, who stated in her town hall meeting in August in Lake Elmo, MN, that while there would have to be a “safety net” for those without insurance she would oppose anything that smacked of government interfering in and controlling medical decisions, voted against the bill - possibly because that's precisely what the Stupak amendment does. Surely the 2010 elections are too distant for Bachmann to be moderating her anti-Obama stance over worries about losing her seat to Maureen Reed or current MN State Senator Tarryl Clark before she gets vested in the House retirement plan (although both are considerably more middle-of-the-road, and Clark has recently pulled a near-miraculous bi-partisan victory on behalf of the residents of the most populous city in Bachmann's 6th District.)

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, and political analyst who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

U.S. Representative Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) is not alone!

You remember Ms. Bachmann; she's the 6th District Representative from Minnesota who went over the top talking to Chris Matthews of Hardball, calling for a return to McCarthyism. She went so far in her demagoguery that General Colin Powell singled her out in his remarks after his Meet the Press endorsement of Senator Obama's candidacy, as has been widely documented.

Her remarks were so out of step with even her gerrymandered district that not only is her her Democratic challenger (Tinklenberg) suddenly awash in donations, her former Republican opponent during the primary said Bachmann had dishonored her office and reentered the race as a write-in candidate. Republicans, Democrats, journalists, people from all walks of life and every political stripe have rejected her smear-mongering.

But she's still got one supporter.

During a debate sponsored by the League of Women Voters that aired state-wide, the Democratic challenger in MN CD #2, Sgt. Steve Sarvi, asked incumbent Rep. John Kline if he would denounce Ms. Bachmann’s outrageous comments; does Kline agree that some Democratic members of Congress are “anti-American” and should be investigated? Does he believe the millions of people who have voted for these public servants also are “anti-American”?

We don’t know because Kline wouldn’t answer the question. Instead, Representative Kline dodged like an old-school politician who expects few are paying attention; he tried to change the subject. He doesn't want to go on the record as disapproving of smears and innuendos. In my book that's tacit approval. Edmund Burke noted centuries ago, that, "All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good people to do nothing." This is not the time for watching quietly, or doing nothing.

It wouldn't have required much bravery for John Kline to agree with the Colin Powell (among other life-long Republicans) to say Bachmann's remarks have gone too far, but he couldn't even pick a side in the situation. He couldn't give Sarvi, or the voters of Minnesota, a straight answer.

As Republican Representatives from Minnesota, Kline and Michelle Bachmann have nearly identical voting records. Some even regard Kline as her obvious mentor. I regard Kline's unwillingness to either condemn her outrageous remarks or take the side of one of his closest allies as a sign it's time for fresh leadership in the 2nd Congressional District of MN, not just Bachmann's 6th. I urge you to contact your friends and family in Minnesota, to make sure they realize how these two view patriotism, and to help sweep new energy into the legislature on November 4th by donating to their campaigns today.

"We have got to stop this kind of nonsense, pull ourselves together, and remember that our great strength is in our unity and in our diversity. "

~General Colin Powell (Ret.)

Here are the two links: to help Sgt. Steve Sarvi unseat John Kline, and
to help Elwyn "El" Tinklenberg unseat Michelle Bachmann.

What will Colin Powell's Obama endorsement mean "down-ticket"

"Obama's a muslim who consorts with terrorists. He'll raise your taxes."

We've all heard rhetoric of that sort, and attacks suggesting Obama will turn the IRS into, “a giant welfare agency,” during the current campaign. On Meet the Press this morning (19 Oct 2008) General Colin Powell (Ret.) cited that sort of old-school attack among the reasons that a life-long Republican who served both the Bush presidencies has decided to vote for Senator Barack Obama in the upcoming presidential election.

Will Powell's public announcement be the tipping point in the decisions made by some of the as-yet-undecided voters? Will he lead a shift of centrist Republicans who find their party no longer epitomizes their values to vote for Obama and re-consider their political affiliation(s)?

Powell was clear in his admiration and respect for Senator McCain, and stated unambiguously that, "We are still the leader of the world that wants to be free. We are still the inspiration..." With his own attention turning to Education as a priority, Powell asserted that the candidates had faced a "Final Exam" in dealing with the financial crisis that the sub-prime mortgage lending mismanagement has created in the banking industry.

How will it play in down-ticket?

Consider Minnesota: In the 3rd Congressional District a former Marine Corps Captain who served in Iraq, Ashwin Madia, is running as a Democrat. Powell's support of Obama will lend credence to the thinking that not all who support our troops align with the current values of the Republican party. That has to work in Madia's favor - and it likely helps Steve Sarvi, too.

In the lesser observed 2nd MN CD race another Iraq vet, Sargent Sarvi, is running as a Democratic challenger, too. Sarvi, who had already served in Kosovo, resigned his duties as a Minnesota Mayor to serve in Iraq. Powell's public stand isn't so much taking the lead as it is a reflection of the reality that even within the armed forces there's a sense that the country needs a new direction. The Republicans clearly no longer own "patriotism" exclusively as part of their brand.

The only incumbent Republican Representative in Minnesota not being challenged by an Iraq War vet is Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, running for re-election in the 6th Congressional District, and she's driving people away from the party (as Zennie mentioned here earlier) with recent extremist statements widely reported in the national press. The result is nearly unprecedented levels of donation to Elwyn "El" Tinklenberg's campaign. Tinklenberg is enjoying Bachmann's discomfiture, though she's trying hard to walk back her comments that remind older voters of the worst of the Joe McCarthy era.

Powell's expressed distaste for the old-school, divisive approach of those controlling the Republican party and making statements such as Congresswoman Bachmann's mirrors a significant rejection of those tactics by voters throughout the country. The memo to ease up on inflammatory, over-the-top rhetoric evidently reached her a little late. She used precisely the sort of smear which Powell this morning characterized as demagoguery, and it's changed the entire nature of her race.

It will be ironic, indeed, if revealing her thoughts in one appearance on TV ends up turning the entire MN Congressional delegation Democratic. Michelle Bachmann's sudden notoriety may improve Obama's party-majority. It has certainly kept the attention on Minnesota, already thought to be a battleground in November.

To round out the Republican problems in Minnesota:

Poll numbers have even caused incumbent Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) to withdraw his negative TV ads against his challenger, Democrat Al Franken (though it should be noted he seems to have left them running against the third party candidate, oddly enough.) Coleman's tried to use that reversal to his advantage, but the excessively distorted negative ads had been such a hallmark one doubts even Coleman is safe in the current climate.

Had McCain's earlier promises to run an honest, respectful campaign guided the actions of his staff, had he exercised more of his own style in determining policies and the choice of a running mate, perhaps his weakness on the economy wouldn't have so utterly undermined his standing in the minds of the voters. Perhaps his leadership would have changed the tone of Coleman ads, or Bachmann's rhetoric, too. While Powell faults the leadership of the party as distinct from McCain, I find that the party's nominee must, in fact, bear some of the onus since he is during the campaign the de facto leader.

The Powell Doctrine

General Colin Powell, the man who has defined U.S. military strategic doctrine, who stands by his actions urging the invasion of Iraq based on the belief intelligence showed there were weapons of mass destruction, summarized his endorsement - his decision to vote for Barack Obama based on the merits of Obama's intellectual rigor and the choices of Republican leaders despite his obvious affection and admiration for John McCain - by saying, "I strongly believe at this point... we need a transformational figure." He's found the leadership of the Republican party lacking lately, and he's ready for change. I agree.

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