Can Democrats swing a district in MN?

The FEC Quarterly reports reveal that lots of money on both sides of the Bachmann-Clark race in Minnesota's 6th District came from outside the state. Tarryl Clark raised a nearly mind-blowing $910,000 in the second quarter. But if it's all about money Michelle Bachmann's evidently got the election in hand, since she raised $2,000,000 (more than double Clark) in the same period.

Democrats better hope it's not all about money in the Minnesota 6th; they certainly know the census-based redistricting can't come in time to change the 2010 election.

Is there hope in MN?

The other side of the Twin Cities metro might be the Democrat's real hope for a pickup. GOP U.S. Representative John Kline's a low-profile guy who simply votes the party line. He has nowhere near the war-chest that Bachmann does despite the nearly identical voting record, and the MN Second District is not the Bachmann's Sixth in terms of voter demographics.

But there are rumors (in blog comments at MN Publius about the fund-raising in the 6th) Republicans had a subtle ace in the hole more effective than Bachmann's high-profile fund-raising in the 6th -- that they slipped a former Republican who voted for Bush and allegedly recently "fell into politics" past the DFL/Democrat's vetting in the 2nd, resulting in an easy opponent for Kline (if Dan Powers clears the primary.)

If Minnesota Democrats sleep through the August primary despite the real contest for the Governor's race, even Kline is safe in a district considerably more likely to swing than the sixth, and Obama will have to look elsewhere to balance the seats the GOP is likely to pick up nationwide in the U.S. House of Representatives in November.

Let's face it, with Bachmann getting national press coverage and raising twice the money?  The complaints the GOP made about Al Franken getting money from outside Minnesota will be forgotten, and her media success will have let Kline stay beneath the radar yet again, while Tarryl Clark fights the good fight in a solidly Republican district against increasingly greater focus by major GOP money.

Rumors?
What else have you got?

I'm doing what I can to raise the profile of former State Representative Shelley Madore prior to the primary in the Second District - she's a proven leader with a lot more in her repertoire than talking points. Madore, with endorsements by the NEA, the American Federation of Teachers, and Education Minnesota, brought common sense solutions that fostered job creation and transportation improvements to the entire region.  She's got the drive and experience to go to D.C., but thus far the media and donors are distracted by the lop-sided, quixotic drama in MN's gerry-mandered Sixth.

The Bottom Line

Just as with the Franken-Coleman Senate race, it's arguable interest from outside Minnesota dwarfs the in-state enthusiasm for political fights yet again. Even with a remarkable 24,000 donors Clark obviously isn't getting financial support from the vast majority of Minnesotans.

In the name of full disclosure I should state that I have donated to the Clark campaign even though she's not in my district (I live in the MN Second) and to both the Madore and Powers campaigns.  But the numbers show I'm not representative in that way.

I'm also not a non-partisan striving for utterly objective reporting.  I'm opinionated. I don't think Kline represents my district neighbors well enough, so I joined Madore's staff even though she got in the race late and isn't blessed by the party insiders.

Donors control who makes it onto the ballot, because without visibility the voters don't bother. That's why special interest money happens. Now, I may or may not have persuaded you Madore's chances against Kline are better than Clark's against Bachmann, but let me be totally clear about one thing.  The bottom line really is that campaigns need money, so here's a grassroots-style idea for those of you who made it this far in my long-winded post:  Donate $10 to my favorite underdog, and $25 to another campaign you care about. That's how you make your voice matter. If not now, when? 

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, political staffer, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.