Palin proves TIMING is EVERYTHING - again.

Sarah Palin burst into the national consciousness almost two years ago, and for a short while news services could talk of nothing else, and following the VP candidates debate pundits said she'd won because she didn't completely blow it. By November the bump Palin provided McCain's ratings faded as the country learned more about his new running-mate, and U.S. voters elected the Illinois Senator with the "funny name and big ears." It wasn't so long after Obama's night in Grant Park that Palin calculated her title as Governor of Alaska was more of a hindrance to her career than a help, remember?

Most of the pundits assure us that Tea Party activists (or at least coverage of them on TV) bolstered by Palin's photogenic smile tipped the balance against incumbent Utah Senator Robert Bennett when he failed to secure his party's nomination at a state convention.

Naturally, Palin has bestowed her Tea Party blessing on John "Complete the Danged Fence" McCain, yet by all accounts McCain is in danger of being upset in a primary. There's no question Arizona is currently the focus of the immigration storm in the U.S., but it's shaping up as the epicenter of the anti-incumbent earthquake since McCain's well-documented "toughening" of his rhetoric on that issue hasn't staved off the challenge from former congressman/talk show radio host J.D. Hayworth.

Like former President Bush, as recently as 2007 mavericky Senator McCain had championed less-extreme solutions to immigration reform before consulting the tea leaves and getting his position right. Unlike Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter, McCain's not in a primary today, but he may wish he was as Hayworth continues to make inroads in McCain's lead. By the time the late August Arizona primary happens the Palin endorsement will be ancient history, and McCain's staff will be struggling to dominate the news cycle much the way Specter's struggled to be "bigger news" than Joe Sestak.

The "re-assignment" of Campaign Manager Shiree Verdone and Aide Mike Hellon reveals just how precarious McCain's situation really is -- and that demonstrates how little impact Palin's early endorsement had. Given her own notoriety it's hard to say if Michelle Bachmann is getting any boost from her connection to Palin, but she's already worried about the Democratic front runner, State Senator Tarryl Clark, who hasn't even secured her place on the November ballot yet (MN primary: August 10th.)

Palin's endorsement may not be enough to preserve McCain's power. Specter's calculated change of parties hasn't looked very effective. Bachmann's running negative ads before her own presumed challenger has even won the primary. Meanwhile the Obama administration is moving forward fast on Wall Street reform, and the unholy trinity of BP, Haliburton, and Transocean squandered that same administration's willingness to let off-shore exploration move ahead.

Drill, baby, drill? Timing is everything.

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, political staffer, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

Tom Hayes: CNNMoney.com gets "Cash for Clunkers" wrong

You'd expect an author at CNNMoney.com to understand the relationship between cashflow and business success.  You'd expect an editor to send this article back to re-write either for more research or more objectivity.  Here was the basis of Peter Valdes-Dapena's misguided assessment:

"...majority of sales would have taken place anyway at some time in the last half of 2009, according to Edmunds.com"

So? This isn't news, and it misses the point of the Cash for Clunkers initiative.

Valdes-Dapena and/or his editors may think selling cars sooner rather than later is a valid reason to criticize the program, but as any businessman can tell you: success in business is about cash flow. Any retail operation needs to keep their stock turning over. At a time when the inventory was sitting idle on the lots this program provided a much needed infusion, enabling dealers to pay staff, utilities, creditors, and suppliers.

Did the Cash for Clunkers program solve the economic crisis? Of course not.  Nor was it intended to. The goal was simple: turn over inventory in one segment of the industry - to keep dealerships from failing in huge numbers before the manufacturers could recover. Save some jobs and hopefully avert a catastrophic spread of deterioration in the auto industry that would further delay economic recovery.

The article may fool a person with no entrepreneurial experience, but it reflects either a shallow grasp of money and business or a thinly-veiled attack on the government's attempt to avert a breakdown in the delivery mechanism of an industry it was actively seeking to save - without proposing any alternative that might have been even marginally effective.

The public may think "Cash for Clunkers" was as simple as just selling cars, the author obviously wants to, but the reality is much subtler. Edmunds didn't surprise anybody (except maybe CNNMoney.com staff) with the news that one of the primary effects was to accelerate the decisions and purchases:

In business, my friends, timing is everything.

 
Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, and political analyst who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

Obama's change means it's not just allies getting appointments. Instead he's forging a complex alloy cabinet.

If President-elect Obama chose his cabinet Secretaries from among his closest, long-time friends and asscociates he would hit the ground running with a known, trusted team but be accused of doing business the same way D.C. has been operating, of rewarding loyalty with political favors. It's almost certain that tomorrow Obama will formally designate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) as his new Secretary of State while retaining Dr. Robert Gates atop the Defense Department, which detractors argue is a failure to engineer change in Washington. This speaks volumes about Obama's intentions.

Memo to the troops:

While there are other Pentagon appointments in the offing Obama is plainly endorsing the efficacy of Gates' approach and performance. The President-elect is sure to mandate examinations, including the procurement processes, but by retaining Gates he's giving a nod to the operational readiness and capability of the military. Obama's choice exhibits confidence in the Defense department's ability to carry out their missions - high praise for the work being done by the men and women who serve this country in uniform, while insuring a continuity that cannot pass unnoticed by those likely to provoke a military response and/or engage our armed forces.

Message to the world:

In contrast, the selection of Senator Clinton for the State Department signals Obama's philosophical preference for reliance upon the soft power of strong diplomacy. The (anticipated) Clinton nomination foreshadows his early focus will be on a makeover at State from top to bottom. Hillary and Bill Clinton already have considerable global standing and influence. This shrewd appointment nonetheless positions the Senator in a challenging management role with diplomatic responsibilities far afield from the domestic policy issues such as health care she is noted for championing.

Leaders and common people around the globe followed Obama's improbable political rise with extraordinary fervor. Selecting a rival to head his outreach effort not only signals his obvious intent to watch that department closely, this union also insures the regular, collaborative, "normalized" participation of a former President in Obama's diplomatic endeavors around the world.

Obama's challenge: re-engineering

Bringing major changes always provokes reactions from those who like the organization just fine the way it is. Try moving where the bread is in a grocery store and you'll find both staff and customers who resist. Now imagine the changes Obama envisions both within our borders and around the world: We've got people in the U.S. who think more government intervention will help immigration but less oversight is needed in the financial industry. Overseas, from drug profiteers to the Taliban bullies to pirates off the coast of Somalia, many want to exploit weakness while decrying the use of force by the United States and others fighting for fairness. Fortunately, peaceful co-existence, be it with your next-door neighbor or with a country steeped in traditions you don't understand, doesn't mean you have to kiss and like everybody.
What Obama has set out to build, both within his administration and ultimately throughout the world, is the best community possible. He seeks a composite in the mold that immigrants to North America and their descendants celebrate each November on the quintessentially U.S. holiday of sustainability: Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving ultimately commemorates the unified strength and durability built when settlers to this nation cooperated with natives to prepare for and survive the adversity of winter. Years after the event a rebellious cadre of intellectuals crafted the document that still epitomizes the best of what our government stands for, even though that government has not always acted as though our leaders embraced what the Constitution spells out.

Peaceful coexistence with the neighbors down the block and around the globe starts with accepting that all people are, in fact, created equal and endowed with certain inalienable rights.

read more | digg story