Palin proves TIMING is EVERYTHING - again.

Sarah Palin burst into the national consciousness almost two years ago, and for a short while news services could talk of nothing else, and following the VP candidates debate pundits said she'd won because she didn't completely blow it. By November the bump Palin provided McCain's ratings faded as the country learned more about his new running-mate, and U.S. voters elected the Illinois Senator with the "funny name and big ears." It wasn't so long after Obama's night in Grant Park that Palin calculated her title as Governor of Alaska was more of a hindrance to her career than a help, remember?

Most of the pundits assure us that Tea Party activists (or at least coverage of them on TV) bolstered by Palin's photogenic smile tipped the balance against incumbent Utah Senator Robert Bennett when he failed to secure his party's nomination at a state convention.

Naturally, Palin has bestowed her Tea Party blessing on John "Complete the Danged Fence" McCain, yet by all accounts McCain is in danger of being upset in a primary. There's no question Arizona is currently the focus of the immigration storm in the U.S., but it's shaping up as the epicenter of the anti-incumbent earthquake since McCain's well-documented "toughening" of his rhetoric on that issue hasn't staved off the challenge from former congressman/talk show radio host J.D. Hayworth.

Like former President Bush, as recently as 2007 mavericky Senator McCain had championed less-extreme solutions to immigration reform before consulting the tea leaves and getting his position right. Unlike Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter, McCain's not in a primary today, but he may wish he was as Hayworth continues to make inroads in McCain's lead. By the time the late August Arizona primary happens the Palin endorsement will be ancient history, and McCain's staff will be struggling to dominate the news cycle much the way Specter's struggled to be "bigger news" than Joe Sestak.

The "re-assignment" of Campaign Manager Shiree Verdone and Aide Mike Hellon reveals just how precarious McCain's situation really is -- and that demonstrates how little impact Palin's early endorsement had. Given her own notoriety it's hard to say if Michelle Bachmann is getting any boost from her connection to Palin, but she's already worried about the Democratic front runner, State Senator Tarryl Clark, who hasn't even secured her place on the November ballot yet (MN primary: August 10th.)

Palin's endorsement may not be enough to preserve McCain's power. Specter's calculated change of parties hasn't looked very effective. Bachmann's running negative ads before her own presumed challenger has even won the primary. Meanwhile the Obama administration is moving forward fast on Wall Street reform, and the unholy trinity of BP, Haliburton, and Transocean squandered that same administration's willingness to let off-shore exploration move ahead.

Drill, baby, drill? Timing is everything.

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, journalist, political staffer, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.