Thursday, May 20, 2010
Giuseppi Logan radio tomorrow, Birthday May 22 -- Suzannah B. Troy
p.s. Folks here is my playlist YouTube documentary series that started it all and became a YouTube miracle http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTssjT9rAmQ&feature=PlayList&p=D1175469A77B9F2C&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1
Global Exchange' Chevron report lacks System Dynamics view
Stocks and Flows - System Dynamics basics |
It is so because when I was in Grad School at UC Berkeley in City and Regional Planning, what consistently angered me was how some third world countries failed to provide for the needs of their poorest citizens. Now, Chevron-haters fail to note the problems in those same countries that I paid attention to at Berkeley (and beyond to a degree.)
What's captured my interest on this for a while now is the pavlovian negative reaction of San Francisco Bay Area activists who work for non-profits or some alternative media types who know them to Chevron. It makes me wonder what trial lawyers, and I know a ton of them, are behind their work. It's so much of a one-sided view that one is compelled to look, and in this blogger's role as disrupter to just about any sacred cow, this issue is too juicy for this space to ignore. Especially considering the lack of a rigorous, System Dynamics perspective, which I will explain below.
First, I have to admit I love the comprehensive approach of the report. Done well, it could be used as a business plan for Chevron's future. But the problem is The True Cost of Chevron leaves out facts to make a negative point about Chevron, thus losing its value as a guide to corporate improvement. Let's take the case of Richmond.
Very recently, just last week, the City of Richmond and Chevron settled a long battle over tax payments and Gayle The Mayor of Richmond really came out looking good on that score. Here's what was decided:
- Chevron will pay an additional $114 million to The City of Richmond over the next 14 years.
- The City of Richmond will stop its ballot measure to change the Utility Tax and Chevron will remove its proposal.
- The City of Richmond will drop its appeal of the Measure T Ballot measure, which was ruled unconstitutional.
- Chevron would wave $1.2 million it sought from the City related to Measure T.
- Chevron will make community contributions totaling $8 million.
Again, I have been critical of Richmond Mayor Gayle McLaughlin on this in the past, but frankly I like her as a person so I was waiting, looking, and hoping for this kind of news. It's with us. So we think that battle's over, right? On to the Richmond Refinery issue? Right?
Well, if you look at the Global Exchange report, and you should do so, it doesn't at all mention the agreement. In an Internet age, one would think an update, one paragraph or two, would be easy to add. Not there.
That's the rub with the Global Exchange report. It is a list of anecdotal stories and tales to paint one view of a firm.
What I would have done if I were Global Exchange is this:
1) Build a comprehensive System Dynamics model of Chevron and its operations around the World.
My expertise is in the area of System Dynamics and I've built almost 200 models over my time. The best example is my Oakland Baseball Simworld sim which I built using the Forio Business Simulations FML Programming Language, and where one can run the business of the Oakland Athletics over a 15 year period and make decisions that are realistic. The sims has over 2,000 variables grouped in 956 equation sets. You can run thousands of scenario permutations, and the sim is based on real legal systems, like Redevelopment, and fiscal methods like franchise valuation.
Another System Dynamics (or "SD") model I constructed was in 1994 and for The East Bay Express and of The University of California at Berkeley's impact on The City of Berkeley. The East Bay Express' editor John Raeside contacted me about building an "SD" model because he was convinced the University's decision to drop salary payments by five percent was going to harm the City of Berkeley.
For that, I created a 900 variable SD model, ran it several times, and concluded that the real economic issue wasn't the salary decrease, because the vast majority of UC Berkeley employees lived outside of Berkeley. The real problem was rising Cal-Berkeley tuition costs, which choked-off student spending in Berkeley (remember about 60 percent of students lived in Berkeley at the time) and harmed Berkeley's sales tax revenue.
(You'd think Raeside would have been happy? No. He wanted his view in SD form; I said I go with what the model runs showed and no changes for emotionalism. Period. End of story. We parted ways. The model was an honest representation of the socio-economic dynamics of Cal in Berkeley. I even predicted student demographic growth changes! Given what's happened with rising tuition today, that study is more relevant than ever. )
In Chevron's case, I want to know how the business is ran in terms of the process of A to Z: from planning and development to oil extraction and distribution and consumption. One of the reasons I became interested in System Dynamics was Royal Dutch Shell's work using "Scenario Planning," and that was how I came to know the Emeryville - based Global Business Network. Peter Schwartz, who is one of the founders of GBN, used Scenario PLanning when he worked with Royal Dutch Shell in the 70s. (On a side note, one of the original members of GBN was Bob Klein, the owner of the now-famous Olivetto's Restaurant in Oakland.)
I'm not a fan of Scenario Planning without System Dynamics, because the outcome of any story is some kind of numerical picture. I tried to explain that to Schwartz a while back, but it didn't take with him. Not to be mean, just honest. It's important to understand the dynamics of a system and to do that, one must build a System Dynamics model. It's in the rigor of thinking about a system and then trying to build a representation of it that we understand it.
My Chevron System Dynamics Model would also include representations of government structure and country industry and demographics as they impact oil operations. Finally we would have to add concerns such as weather and earthquakes, and plant and investment rates over time, and local political, socio-economic, and criminal issues (like terrorism).
The end result would be a System Dynamics model that then allows one to test different corporate approaches. From that we can see their impact on firm's revenues and expenses and value. The uneducated will immediately jump to the idea that "it's all about money" but really having built so many of these models, I can explain that political issues always impact the bottom line.
From that I would write my report.
2 - Write An "Alternative Business Plan" For Chevron
The Chevron business plan would come from the conclusions after running the model. What's exciting about this approach is it allows us to actually see how the issues raised in the Global Exchange report impact Chevron and how different approaches and also improvements in the political problems of some of the countries where Chevron does business, impact the firm.
What's most valuable is the Chevron business plan can capture the attention of Chevron execs, shareholders, and activists. Online versions of the model would be open for anyone to run. It would change the nature of the debate about Chevron from its current, combative, at times idiotic, and really very anti-intellectual approach, to one that's reasoned, intelligent, and well-considered.
Global Exchange could very well be the organization that takes the steps I'm advocating. It would result in the most path-breaking effort since the Club of Rome's program that led to the World Models developed by Dennis Meadows and his team at MIT in 1971, and based on the paradigm of System Dynamics, created by Jay Forrester at MIT. (And which was updated in the book Beyond The Limits which was based on a new model called World 3.)
Stay tuned because this cries for more on System Dynamics and Scenario Planning.
Facebook Privacy: My love/hate relationship. by: Nikky Raney
Zennie62 at TechCrunch Disrupt, New York, by Christine Smith Contractors
The trip is sponsored by Christine Smith Associates, Inc., the Premier Female Contractor in NYC. (Christine Smith is probably the only New York Contractor to be featured, not just mentioned, in New York Post Page 6 by Cindy Adams.)
TechCrunch Disrupt (@TCDisrupt on Twitter) is a mating of media people and tech people in arguably the next tech center, New York City. TechCrunch Disrupt is an answer to the problem noted in this space where tech people talk to tech people and journalists talk to journalists about the future of media, but not to each other.
But TechCrunch Disrupt goes a massive step beyond that and ads the venture capitalist to the mix. The result is a stew of creative people and a presentation of startup companies that will drive the future of media and communications. It will have speakers like Jason Calacanis from Mahalo, and Charlie Rose will interview legendary Venture Capitalist John Doerr. But more important than names are firms; TechCrunch will have scores of new media and communications companies just getting off the ground.
TechCrunch Disrupt runs from May 24th to May 26th and will be held at an Merrill Lynch office at 570 Washington Street in Manhattan, where "SoHo Meets The Hudson" as the website reads. I'm honored and excited to have been invited to cover this event. I guess Hearst Corporation / SF Chronicle Executive Vice President of Content Development and Editor-at-Large Phil Bronstein was right when he referred to me as an insurgent: that's another term for disrupter.
I like that.
In fact, let's look at my video interview with Phil from earlier this year because it provides a good look at how the changing media landscape impacts The San Francisco Chronicle, and what's important in "new media tech" from Phil's perspective:
Join this space for a virtual trip to TechCruch Disrupt, but if you want to attend you can get tickets here: TICKETS.
See ya!
---
Christine Smith Associates, Inc. is Located and based out of Historic Gramercy Park has made construction dreams come true. She designs AND project manages - like having your own personal rep on the job! She takes care of it all from your voice thru the city agencies to gain all necessary approvals on and into the hands of the tradesmen.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Campbell Brown, Miley Cyrus, sex and hypocrisy
YouTube, Yahoo, Metacafe, DailyMotion, Blip.tv and StupidVideos
Campbell Brown |
But really, what's Sexism?
Sexism in its purest form is putting a person down because of their sex. Again, Campbell Brown's a top-flight news anchor who should have the position she had with CNN and more. CNN was right to work a deal to land Brown over two years ago.
But in 2008, CNN was being clobbered by Fox News in TV ratings. Fox News was known for its presentation of female anchors in short skirts. Weathering criticism, Fox News continues the practice to this day and has established a ratings lead over CNN that's horrifyingly large.
But sexist? Even the definitions of Sexism listed in Wikipedia explain only that one can argue that while using sex to cause people to watch a telecast may be sexist, it's not agreed that this is the case. The reason for this is the extreme levels of hypocrisy on display in this debate.
For example, had I said CNN's Anderson Cooper should wear a polo shirt to show his cut muscular body, no one would blog that was sexist and some women would click the "like" button on Facebook (heck, some guys too). The fact is, Anderson Cooper's not leaving his show as of this writing. But more to the point is it seems to be OK to point to male sexual assets on television but not to female sexual assets, yet, the patterns of viewing shows a desire to "see female skin."
Some bloggers are down right hypocritical in their criticism of the "sex sells" approach. Entertainment Tonight blogger Aly Semigran said that my take of Campbell Brown was sexist. But get this, Aly Semigran herself is known as a blogger who specializes in blogging about sex scandals according to NewsObserver.com. In her posts, she uses terms like "icky" to describe a sex scandal, yet is drawn to blog about it like a fish to water.
Using terms like "icky" is a way to wash out the guilt Aly feels from writing about sex scandals and also to mask the sheer enjoyment she undoubtedly gets from blogging about everything from Tiger Woods Mistresses and the Tiger Woods Text Messages, to John Edwards and Rielle Hunter, and of course Charlie Sheen.
In other words, Aly Semigran covers the same ground that this blogger walks, but does so with guilt; I have none. Aly knows sex sells, but she's conflicted. That's the worst place to be.
It's terrible because Aly dives down the sexual fox hole with gusto and is willing to get dirty but runs the risk of not knowing when the lines between what's acceptable taste and isn't are blurred. If a person has no fear of using sex in media they know when not to use it and why.
For example, Aly seems to write about every sex scandal there is. If God were involved in a sex scandal, she'd blog it. Last month, Aly wrote about another sex scandal that I consider very low-level: it would never make the Google Trends list so why bother? Yet Aly did so, and repeats an email Actress Garcelle Beauvais-Nilon wrote to CAA staff about her allegedly cheating husband that wasn't important to repost except for shock value and so you will not see here.
I could argue Aly was being sexist for, in her pursuit of sex scandal stories, presenting women in a certain light by presenting the same images of mistresses and hurt, angry, weathy wives over and over and over again. But because Aly has a fear of using sex that's masked with other reasons, blogging about a low-level story like that one becomes second nature, and the overall impact is lost on her. Makes me think of Desperate Housewives.
Yep, Desperate Housewives, which features the same story lines about, yep, cheating husbands and wives. Desperate Housewives proves that sex sells on television and was one of the most successful launches in television history in 2005.
That's the field Aly's playing in. A show that some call sexist and offensive. Yet here's Aly presenting the same kind of material to her audience and yet calling me sexist because I want a powerful female anchor and not a wife or a mistress to show some leg to get ratings. That's hypocrisy. Is Aly the kind who wears a cleavage showing blouse, dares a guy not to look down, then uses the same as an online profile picture? I wonder.
I will defend my point again and again. Sadly Campbell Brown's going to be off the air on CNN. Meanwhile, Miley Cyrus remains not only on the air but bigger than ever in the wake of the Miley Cyrus Lap Dance Video scandal. Fox News continues its combination of angry white guys, lovely blonde women, and Sarah Palin. And Desperate Housewives is still one of the most popular shows on television.
Sex sells for men and women. It's not a put down of anyone, but a fact of life.
Sandra Bullock to adopt another baby? -- Suzannah B. Troy
I predicted right away that Sandra Bullock could be "going Angelina Jolie" and tonight on Extra (? - unless I am watching TMZ I flip fast) it was mentioned people close to Bullock are saying she does want to adopt very soon so Louis has a younger sibling.
I made this prediction April 29 right here on this blog, Zennie62.com and now it seems I am one step closer to being proven right. http://zennie2005.blogspot.com/2010/04/sandra-bullock-angelina-jolie-adoption.html
I mentioned it on the previous posting about Jesse James coming to tv to tell us his side on Nightline. Good thing Nightline airs late at night so the kiddies will be in bed because anything he has to say is for an adult audience, at least right now.
There are stunning new photos of Louis being hugged tightly to Sandra Bullock in New Orleans as she goes shopping for him and he looks even more beautiful if that is possible. He is a gorgeous baby.
Hollywood is in baby mode over time and I have to say I have late in life baby envy extra bad right now.
Kelly Preston is 3 months pregnant and she is the same age as me, 47. This is not a surprise since she and John Travolta went through the trauma of losing their son.
It is also no surprise to me that Sandra Bullock is rumored to be adopting another child as soon as she can as discussed tonight on a celebrity tv show. She doesn't want to be described as "going Angelina Jolie" I am sure but another People Magazine scoop maybe coming as soon as Sandra Bullock can work out an adoption...adopting a child isn' t like ordering fast food so be patient and stay tuned....
Jesse James Nightline, Sandra Bullock adopting another? Suzannah B. Troy
Did I read on his Wikepedia page that he is not in fact related to Jesse James although he says otherwise ? Yes, sounds like another Jesse James deception and again no one really cares. People that love Jesse James do and they just don't care. Sandra Bullock fans are sighing with relief she has moved on.
Note: On this blog I was first to predict Sandra Bullock would most likely adopt a second child and I just heard on Extra (?) that my prediction is rumored to be a reality in the making. Here is the link where I saw this coming... http://zennie2005.blogspot.com/2010/04/sandra-bullock-angelina-jolie-adoption.html Stay tuned. Back to JJ...
*Jesse James is coming soon to the boob tube (my guess rated parental guidance) good girls beware. Side note: Mae West is my idol and I am a good girl. This is for you Mae. I am a good girl but when even when I am bad, I am really, really good! Probably true of Sandra Bullock as well....
* Why do I think some major porn studio is already in production on Jesse James sex-ploits. I don't know that, just wondering since they started production on Tiger Woods sex-catastrophe in to celluloid very fast.
Bret Michaels leads Celebrity Apprentice poll 80 percent, 5,844 votes
On Monday this space ran a poll asking you to select the Celebrity Apprentice 2010 winner between Bret Michaels and Holly Robinson Peete. There were five choices: Holly Robinson Peete, Bret Michaels, "I don't know at this point", "Both of them", and "Trump picked the wrong final two."
Two days ago, another blog post in this space reported that 70 percent of voters picked Bret Michaels to win the Celebrity Apprentice 2010. The problem with the results at the time was there were just 161 votes.
Now, thanks to the good folks at Pollsb, the makers of the system I regularly use to make online polls, and the placement of the blog posts on Google News, all that has changed. At one point, Pollsb placed the poll on their front page as the "featured poll" and the vote count jumped dramatically. Additionally many of the votes, indeed, the vast majority, have been fueled by online searches.
Now, as of this writing (and it changes every 2 minutes or so by observation as this blog's written), 5,858 votes have been cast and since the design of the Pollsb system guards against duplicate voting, it can be reported that Country Rocker Bret Michaels of Poison has gained 80 percent of the votes cast to be the Celebrity Apprentice 2010 winner.
This is the largest number of respondents to a poll I have created since the Pollsb system was employed in this space. The poll has been viewed 9,381 times as of this writing, so just over 50 percent of the viewers have responded to the poll.
Bret Michaels' popularity was fueled by his very public brain hemorrhage and his battle to survive it. Holly Robinson Peete was an excellent player of Celebrity Apprentice 2010 but her ruthless approach is a direct contract to Bret Michaels' quiet yet strong approach, which seems to have gained friends and fans on Celebrity Apprentice.
But it's all up to Donald Trump. The winner of the Celebrity Apprentice 2010 will be named May 23rd on NBC.
Here's the poll:
More opinion surveys on pollsb.com
Rock the Casbah!
Corrupt developers, landlords, contractors aided by City of NY? post by Suzannah B. Troy
p.s. Crain's reports another Bloomberg head leaves....Also note: I wrote Dan Doctoroff and warned him Bloomberg and
he was putting us, the people of New York in danger with a reckless tsunami of development on "old" New York's
infrastructure and that was before the Grand Central explosion that looked like a terror attack.
Doctoroff had some one from DEP write me back saying nothing to worry about....yeah right.
terror attack.
TWITTER doesn't have to make you a TWIT by: NIKKY RANEY
Okay, I think that there needs to be some new rules that dictate to public figures that just because you have a twitter/facebook does not mean that you should "dumb down" your speech. I am appalled that it has become socially acceptable (or appears to have become) for politicians to write that way online. I have an example from Sarah Palin's official twitter.
"Earth saw clmate chnge4 ions;will cont 2 c chnges.R duty2responsbly devlop resorces4humankind/not pollute&destroy;but cant alter naturl change" **
http://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/6823906156
**does she mean EONS?
That is her exact tweet. I have not altered, changed, or edited anything from the original tweet.
Since when is it acceptable to write this way? For those of you who will argue against me and say that it's "easier" or "Twitter's 140-character limit makes it difficult," that should not matter. Either shorten your tweet to 140 characters OR make multiple tweets. She could have made two separate tweets and got the message across.
Who is the target audience here? I had my 60-year-old father read this tweet. He struggled to read it out loud, and he was very frustrated while trying to understand what she was trying to say. If the target audience for her twitter are other adults, then she may have a problem. I asked some of my friends (college-aged) to read the tweet, and most of them also struggled.
I think that writing in such a way does not promote literacy or clarity. I don't think that as a politician, on her public (not personal/private), Twitter, she should be writing in a way that misrepresents her intelligence.
I think that it seems rushed and careless. I don't even make my Twitter that way, and my Twitter is a personal "request only" account.
I have done research and noticed that I am not the only one to give criticism to Sarah Palin. Other criticism includes
"TWITTER ACCOUNT OF A 9 YEAR OLD"
I am not intentionally attacking or "dissing" Sarah Palin for the way she uses her Twitter. I am simply using her as an example of what I have seen on Twitter that I believe is not acceptable. I do not think I am alone in my opinion. I jokingly said to my aunt in an e-mail, "She puts the TWIT in TWITTER," and that is what inspired this blog entry.
Don't forget to follow Zennie62 on twitter for the latest updates!
Posted by: Nikky Raney
If you have any concerns or any topics you think I should cover don't hesitate to contact me!
Blanche Lincoln volunteers taking down Bill Halter signs?
According to the blog Blue Hog Report out of Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln volunteers are taking down "Bill Halter for Senate" signs. This is what Jeff at Blue Hog Report blogged:
I couldn’t help but become extremely irked today at lunch by a lack of signage by the Starbucks near the I-630/Broadway exit. You see, for the second straight day, I drove by a location where I had previously placed a Bill Halter for Senate sign, along with an accompanying John Adams for Congress sign, only to see them taken down in both spots and replaced with this:
Jeff stops short of accusing Blanche Lincoln volunteers of taking down Bill Halter signs all over the state, but it's said where there's smoke there's fire. The fire was discovered by Blue Arkansas blog, which reports another incident in Jonesboro, Arkansas.
" ARDem" at Blue Arkansas thinks the Bill Halter sign removal effort is the work of Republicans who don't want him to win. Personally, I would suspect that. Blanche Lincoln's captured a lot of the conservative vote and support down there. Regardless, taking signs off a lawn is just plain wrong.
Stay tuned.
Dancing With The Stars results may 18th: Chad Ochocinco gone
Well, the fantasy is over:
Chad Ochocinco was eliminated from Dancing With The Stars last night. Give the Cincinnati Bengals star wide receiver credit: he made it to the final four celebrity dancers and that's saying a lot for a person with no previous dancing experience.
According to MTV.com, Chad said "This was awesome. I enjoyed the journey. I met some wonderful people. I got some great criticism that's only made me stronger ... and I'll miss 'em all, especially the beautiful Cheryl Burke. And in my eyes really, I've already won."
And he had. Where Chad Ochocinco was known only to sports fans and NFL football fans, now he has a true celebrity following that he will carry into the 2010 NFL season.
And if there's a lockout in 2011, Chad has a new network of contacts he can call on for whatever entertainment work he may want to do. Congratulations to Chad Ochocinco. He may have been eliminated from Dancing With The Stars but he started a new chapter in his life.