What will Colin Powell's Obama endorsement mean "down-ticket"

"Obama's a muslim who consorts with terrorists. He'll raise your taxes."

We've all heard rhetoric of that sort, and attacks suggesting Obama will turn the IRS into, “a giant welfare agency,” during the current campaign. On Meet the Press this morning (19 Oct 2008) General Colin Powell (Ret.) cited that sort of old-school attack among the reasons that a life-long Republican who served both the Bush presidencies has decided to vote for Senator Barack Obama in the upcoming presidential election.

Will Powell's public announcement be the tipping point in the decisions made by some of the as-yet-undecided voters? Will he lead a shift of centrist Republicans who find their party no longer epitomizes their values to vote for Obama and re-consider their political affiliation(s)?

Powell was clear in his admiration and respect for Senator McCain, and stated unambiguously that, "We are still the leader of the world that wants to be free. We are still the inspiration..." With his own attention turning to Education as a priority, Powell asserted that the candidates had faced a "Final Exam" in dealing with the financial crisis that the sub-prime mortgage lending mismanagement has created in the banking industry.

How will it play in down-ticket?

Consider Minnesota: In the 3rd Congressional District a former Marine Corps Captain who served in Iraq, Ashwin Madia, is running as a Democrat. Powell's support of Obama will lend credence to the thinking that not all who support our troops align with the current values of the Republican party. That has to work in Madia's favor - and it likely helps Steve Sarvi, too.

In the lesser observed 2nd MN CD race another Iraq vet, Sargent Sarvi, is running as a Democratic challenger, too. Sarvi, who had already served in Kosovo, resigned his duties as a Minnesota Mayor to serve in Iraq. Powell's public stand isn't so much taking the lead as it is a reflection of the reality that even within the armed forces there's a sense that the country needs a new direction. The Republicans clearly no longer own "patriotism" exclusively as part of their brand.

The only incumbent Republican Representative in Minnesota not being challenged by an Iraq War vet is Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, running for re-election in the 6th Congressional District, and she's driving people away from the party (as Zennie mentioned here earlier) with recent extremist statements widely reported in the national press. The result is nearly unprecedented levels of donation to Elwyn "El" Tinklenberg's campaign. Tinklenberg is enjoying Bachmann's discomfiture, though she's trying hard to walk back her comments that remind older voters of the worst of the Joe McCarthy era.

Powell's expressed distaste for the old-school, divisive approach of those controlling the Republican party and making statements such as Congresswoman Bachmann's mirrors a significant rejection of those tactics by voters throughout the country. The memo to ease up on inflammatory, over-the-top rhetoric evidently reached her a little late. She used precisely the sort of smear which Powell this morning characterized as demagoguery, and it's changed the entire nature of her race.

It will be ironic, indeed, if revealing her thoughts in one appearance on TV ends up turning the entire MN Congressional delegation Democratic. Michelle Bachmann's sudden notoriety may improve Obama's party-majority. It has certainly kept the attention on Minnesota, already thought to be a battleground in November.

To round out the Republican problems in Minnesota:

Poll numbers have even caused incumbent Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) to withdraw his negative TV ads against his challenger, Democrat Al Franken (though it should be noted he seems to have left them running against the third party candidate, oddly enough.) Coleman's tried to use that reversal to his advantage, but the excessively distorted negative ads had been such a hallmark one doubts even Coleman is safe in the current climate.

Had McCain's earlier promises to run an honest, respectful campaign guided the actions of his staff, had he exercised more of his own style in determining policies and the choice of a running mate, perhaps his weakness on the economy wouldn't have so utterly undermined his standing in the minds of the voters. Perhaps his leadership would have changed the tone of Coleman ads, or Bachmann's rhetoric, too. While Powell faults the leadership of the party as distinct from McCain, I find that the party's nominee must, in fact, bear some of the onus since he is during the campaign the de facto leader.

The Powell Doctrine

General Colin Powell, the man who has defined U.S. military strategic doctrine, who stands by his actions urging the invasion of Iraq based on the belief intelligence showed there were weapons of mass destruction, summarized his endorsement - his decision to vote for Barack Obama based on the merits of Obama's intellectual rigor and the choices of Republican leaders despite his obvious affection and admiration for John McCain - by saying, "I strongly believe at this point... we need a transformational figure." He's found the leadership of the Republican party lacking lately, and he's ready for change. I agree.

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