Spinning Surveys -- keep thinking

You've probably seen recent stories that over 40% of Republicans -- or an even higher fraction of Tea Partiers -- think the current President wasn’t born in this country. You may also have heard Rush Limbaugh talking about what the people surveyed think in dramatic (or even bombastic) terms. It's spin.

Here's the thing:

No matter if you’re listening to Limbaugh, watching cable TV, or reading about it in Salon or your favorite blog-site, the surveys only tell you what people say, not what they think. Pundits are free to theorize about what the survey means, but to go beyond and tell us what people are thinking? That is plain, unmitigaged guessing, and it's almost certainly motivated by the desire to keep ratings up and make money from ads - which sadly relies all together too much on spin intended to keep you coming back for more, no matter if the source is right-leaning or left-leaning politically.

Allegedly expert commentators and media darlings alike may choose to infer the Republicans responding to such surveys “think Obama wasn’t born in America,” but it’s equally valid to infer they simply wish that he wasn’t -- you could even suggest they want you to think they think he wasn’t born here, but the fact remains that all you know is what they've said.

The data, the facts, are how those people responded, nothing more. You can’t know what a person is thinking; that's why the American legal system, for instance, is predicated on actions, not media coverage, commentator speculation, or inferences drawn by partisan pundits paid to keep ratings up.

Keep thinking.

Thomas Hayes is an entrepreneur, Democratic Campaign Manager, journalist, and photographer who contributes regularly to a host of web sites on topics ranging from economics and politics to culture and community.

On Rush Limbaugh, His $400 Million Contract & Bo Snerdley

Today, it was announced that Rush Limbaugh signed a %400 million contract with Clear Channel. In this video, I explain that Rush's success came at a price. Michelle Sixta is a friend of mine and at one point lived on Madison, across Lake Merritt from me in Oakland, Ca.

Michelle was a lot of fun. She and I would go on something called the "Back Yard Bird Watch" and generally had a good time, then lost touch after a few years.

She was also -- prior to our meeting -- married to Rush as his second wife. She didn't talk about him much at all, but when she did, she explained that at first their marriage was fine, but as the years went on, Rush was more into himself than into her. He'd rather read a book than have sex.

I hope she's going to get part of that $400 Million.

Meanwhile, Rush has taken aim at Senator Barack Obama's run for president by employing his call screener James Gould as "Bo Snerdley" the official Obama criticizer.

In my view, picking someone who looks like the Pillsbury Doughboy and Austin Powers' "Fat Bastard" to supposedly criticize Obama just helps the Obama for America campaign.

Thanks Rush.

Finally, Rush should never be allowed to have himself photographed smoking a cigar as he was in my video. He looks like he's giving some dude a BJ, and that's from a straight guy.