Bill Maher on the Rachel Maddow Show - Against Sarah Palin

USA Today Gallup Poll Numbers Rigged Again -- To Favor McCain

Last year, I created a video and blog post reporting how Gallup's Frank Newport rigged a poll created for the USA Today to reflect a Clinton lead over Barack Obama in June and because Newport admitted that he could not believe that Obama was tied with Clinton.

This is what I wrote last year:

OK. Get this. Just get this. Two weeks ago, Senator Barack Obama was tied -- that's right, tied -- with Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic Presidential race in the then latest USA Today / Gallup Poll. Now, USA Today / Gallup didn't do a poll in May, and certainly not two weeks apart, but this new one says that Senator Clinton has a large lead.

What?

The critical eye would have a question. I've got several. But the bottom line is the second round of polling was rigged. Why? Because someone didn't like the outcome and doesn't want Senator Barack Obama to win, so they immediately ordered another poll and worked to obtain results they wanted to see.

The poll effort was rigged. That's right, rigged.

You can't even find the poll on the Gallup website. How in the hell can you explain the supposed "double-digit lead" Senator Clinton has, but then she's behind in South Carolina? That observation about the black vote being the reason is pure bull shit.

Don't believe it because there's no proof for it.

This is what the USA Today's "Gallup Guru" , Frank Newport, reported in his blog - the smoking gun, in part, is here:

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Clinton, Obama, immigration and Russian attitudes

New polling data from several survey organizations – including pending data from Gallup -- make it clear that Sen. Hillary Clinton is maintaining or strengthening her lead for the presidential nomination over Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats. Our early June USA Today/Gallup poll showed the two tied, as discussed here and here. But that finding apparently did not signify a significant change in the structure of the race. The latest polls from the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal/NBC show Clinton in her accustomed role as leader when Democrats are asked whom they want to be their party’s nominee. It looks as if the June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll either picked up a short term change, or as noted here, was a function of unusual sampling which happened to pick up Democrats who were more pro-Obama than the underlying population.

We have a Gallup poll now in the field, with results to be reported early next week. Preliminary indications are that this poll will find Clinton back in her typical leadership position as she has been for the most part this year.

What? In other words, Whoops! We can't believe the outcome, so we've got to talk to a new set of people and get the outcome we want. We can't -- just can't -- be forced to report that Senator Obama is tied with Senator Clinton.

What the Gallup Guru does not explain is why they did a new poll so close after the first one, and without having done a poll two weeks before?

I'll tell you why. Because USA Today and CNN are reporting these polls and don't want Senator Barack Obama to win the Democratic race for the White House.

They don't want a president who happens to be Black, and so they're trying to engineer a win for Senator Clinton. First, CNN consistently focuses on the race issue, then reports any small seemingly negative information about Senator Obama. Any positive information is either downplayed or avoided altogether, or rigged, as in the case of this polling process.

I think the USA Today, CNN, and Gallup all should appologize to Senator Barack Obama. I seriously doubt Frank Newport just decided to do a new poll -- the USA Today paid him to do a new poll because they didn't like the outcome of the first one.

That's crass. Noam Chomsky was right in his classic work "Manufacturing Consent" -- the old media (USA Today) is trying to manipulate the public.

They have to explain the South Carolina poll as well as why the Mason-Dixon pollsters shared their error data, where the USA Today / Gallup Poll people did not. One can argue that the latest USA Today Gallup Poll has a huge margin of error considering the games they play with these polls. This is totally irresponsible on the part of USA Today and Gallup.

Now it appears that Newport and Gallup are at it again, and once again with the USA Today. The credit for this discovery goes to DailyKos blogger Dick Driver, who explained that normally Gallup uses "registered voters" as the basis for its poll surveys but for a USA Today poll after the Republican National Convention, Gallup created a poll using the less accurate "likely voter" method.

How did Driver know this? Because he found Gallup's own notes explaining the problem. Here's what Driver wrote:

From Gallup:

Second, we are at this point reporting likely voter estimates on only an occasional basis. We feel that the trends among registered voters give us the best way to track election preferences in our daily poll, in part because many voters are not yet in a position to accurately estimate their chances of voting on Election Day. But from time to time, we do estimate (and report) likely voter results to give us a feel for the potential difference turnout could make in November. So far this summer, there have been occasions when -- as was the case this past weekend after the GOP convention -- likely voters were decidedly more Republican. But there have also been occasions when there was little difference between the vote patterns of likely voters and those of registered voters.

In other words, Gallup is admitting the following:

At the time it released the September 8th poll (showing McCain up by 10), it believed institutionally that likely voter results were less accurate than registered voter results.
Likely voter results have only occasionally diverged from the registered voter results.
Despite these facts, Gallup deliberately chose to release, to the widest fanfare possible, a poll using an admittedly less accurate method (the likely voter method) at the time of McCain's maximum convention bounce, knowing that it would show a large divergence (+10 for McCain vs. only +4 with registered voters) based on the likely voter method, even though such a divergence is not often present.
In short, they combined all possible factors in McCain's favor to make his lead seem as big as possible -- and the media went wild with it.

But the problem does not end there.

The Democratic Party has an advantage of 11 million more registered voters than the Republican Party and the margin keeps growing. But that difference is not reflected in the polls. The reason, according to Seth Coulter Walls in the Huffington Post, is that "Party ID" -- who's Democrat, Republican, etc -- is estimated as either 50 / 50 or in some cases with Republicans ahead. That's not what reality tells us, but the poll results reflect a closer race that the true totals of registered Democrats and Republicans show. And that shows a possible landslide victory for Senator's Barack Obama and Joe Biden if the Obama camp's get out the vote strategy works as well as it seems that it will come election day.

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For a first hand account of the at least 1400 person strong rally, with lots of great pictures, please head over to Mudflats. She'll give you tons of great information. Here's the video:

Lindsay Lohan Links to Zennie, Reveals Sexism and Racism of Some McCain - Palin Supporters

Lindsay Lohan en "Chicas malas", originally uploaded by pedrotbm.

Earlier today Zennie's Zeitgeist blog had one of those nice little traffic spikes that was unexpected but I always wondered what caused it, and so I'd go off on a research mission.

In this case, what caused it was a blog post written by none other than Lindsay Lohan herself and is a rant against the McCain Palin ticket and for the upcoming Church-based rally against gays, which Lohan saw on my blog and linked to it...

Here:

http://zennie2005.blogspot.com/2008/09/sarah-palins-church-hosts-anti-gay.html

But in the Celebrity blog section of MySpace, the sexist and racist comments came at a rapid pace, with a few people calling Lohan names I will not repeat here.

And yes, they say they're McCain Palin supporters. Just the kind of racist and sexist people I work to avoid like the plague.

Meanwhile, this is the full text of Lindsay's blog with her friend Samantha:

I really cannot bite my tongue anymore when it comes to Sarah Palin.

I couldn't be more supportive of a woman in office, but let's face it, it comes down to the person, and their beliefs, male or female.

Is it a sin to be gay? Should it be a sin to be straight? Or to use birth control? Or to have sex before marriage? Or even to have a child out of wedlock?

I find it quite interesting that a woman who now is running to be second in command of the United States, only 4 years ago had aspirations to be a television anchor. Which is probably all she is qualified to be... Also interesting that she got her passport in 2006.. And that she is not fond of environmental protection considering she's FOR drilling for oil in some of our protected land.... Well hey, if she wants to drill for oil, she should DO IT IN HER OWN backyard. This really shows me her complete lack of real preparation to become the second most powerful person in this country.

Hmmmm-All of this gets me going-Fear, Anxiety, Concern, Disappointment, and Stress come into play...

Is our country so divided that the Republicans best hope is a narrow minded, media obsessed homophobe?

I know that the most important thing about this election is that people need to exercise their right to vote, regardless of their choice... I would have liked to have remained impartial, however I am afraid that the "lipstick on a pig" comments will overshadow the issues and the fact that I believe Barack Obama is the best choice, in this election, for president...

Palin's Desire to "save and convert the gays"-really??

According to this Associated Press story, the church of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is hosting a kind of conference devoted to the "conversion of Gays" -- no kidding.

Here's the AP text:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) ? Gov. Sarah Palin's church is promoting a conference that promises to convert gays into heterosexuals through the power of prayer.

You'll be encouraged by the power of God's love and His desire to transform the lives of those impacted by homosexuality," according to the insert in the bulletin of the Wasilla Bible Church, where Palin has prayed since she was a child.

Palin's conservative Christian views have energized that part of the GOP electorate, which was lukewarm to John McCain's candidacy before he named her as his vice presidential choice. She is staunchly anti-abortion, opposing exceptions for rape and incest, and opposes gay marriage and spousal rights for gay couples.

http://zennie2005.blogspot.com/2008/09/sarah-palins-church-hosts-anti-gay.html

I feel it's necessary for me to clarify that I am not against Sarah Palin as a mother or woman.

Women have come a long way in the fight to have the choice over what we do with our bodies... And its frightening to see that a woman in 2008 would negate all of that.

Oh, and...Hint Hint Pali Pal- Don't pose for anymore tabloid covers, you're not a celebrity, you're running for office to represent our, your, my COUNTRY!

And in the words of Pamela Anderson, "She can suck it"..


Lindsay- "I have faith that this country will be all that it can be with the proper guidance. I really hope that all of you make your decisions based on the facts and what feels right to you in your heart-vote for obama!"

Samantha- "I love this country- however i wasn't born here and don't have the right to vote- so i beg of you all to really do your research and be educated when you cast your vote this coming november.... and if you're in doubt- vote for obama! Mainly because if she gets elected my green card probably won't get renewed!!!"


xoxo
Lindsay and Samantha