Just three weeks ago, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton entered the Pennsylvania Primary with a 15 point lead in the polls conducted there.
To many, especially those in the mainstream media, it seemed that her lead was one Obama could not overcome. Many had projected her to win; a few, specifically CNN's Jack Cafferty, did observe that Obama has a tendency to turn the polling in a state once he's visited its people.
A few days ago, there were signs that the polls were turning Obama's way after the Bosnian Trip Scandal, which caught Senator Clinton openly lying about her involvement in the war there. The Bosnian Scandal overtook the Wright Issue in news reporting and contributed to the polling side which continued and was marked by Rassmusen's reported Clinton lead of just five percent a few days ago , so it was seemingly inevitable that at one point Obama could overtake Clinton in the Keystone State.
That happened today.
Senator Barack Obama now leads Senator Hillary Clinton 45 percent to 43 percent in a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling. Heres the text from the press release I received:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 2, 2008
Obama overtakes Clinton in PA
Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has taken the lead over Hillary Clinton 45-43 in Pennsylvania, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.
It’s a remarkable turn around from PPP’s last Pennsylvania poll, conducted two and a half weeks ago, that showed Clinton with a 26 point lead in the state. That poll was released at the height of the Jeremiah Wright controversy and the day before Obama’s major speech on race in Philadelphia. Obama has been trending upward in nationalpolling and in many state level polls since then and this survey reflects that pattern.
“In the last few weeks there has been increasing attention given to the fact that a continuing divisive Democratic nomination fight could hurt the party’s chances of defeating John McCain this fall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“The major movement in Obama’s direction in Pennsylvania could be an indication that Democrats in that state think it’s time to wrap it up.”
Obama is narrowing the gap with white voters, trailing just 49-38, while maintaining his customary significant advantage with black voters. He leads that group 75-17.
Obama also leads among all age groups except senior citizens, with whom Clinton has a 50-34 advantage. The poll shows the standard gender gap with Obama leading by 15 points among men while trailing by 10 points with women.
PPP surveyed 1224 likely Democratic primary voters on March 31st and April 1st. The survey’s margin of errors is +/- 2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Public Policy Polling had the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for the Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Wisconsin, as well as the closest numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com
More on this development soon.
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