According to Pollster.com, two new Iowa polls show a very close race but with two different leaders. Here's what they write:
Two new polls of "likely Democratic caucus goers" conducted over the last ten days that show very different results. The American Research Group (ARG) survey (conducted 8/26-29, n=600) shows Hillary Clinton (with 28%) leading Barack Obama (23%) and John Edwards (20%). And a new survey from Time/SRBI (conducted 8/22-26, n=519, Time story, SRBI results) shows essentially the opposite, Edwards (with 29%) leading Clinton (24%) and Obama (22%).
The article goes on to complain about the lack of disclosure of methodology used in the polls, and then praises the Time poll for disclosure:
The sample source was a list of registered Democratic and Independent voters in Iowa provided by Voter Contact Services. These registered voters were screened to determine their likelihood of attending the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses.
Likely voters included in the sample included those who said they were
100% certain that they would attend the Iowa caucuses, OR
probably going to attend and reported that they had attended a previous Iowa caucus.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 5 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.
Data were weighted to approximate the 2004 Iowa Democratic Caucus "Entrance Polls," conducted January 19, 2004.
Turnout in primary elections and caucuses tends to be low, with polls at this early stage generally overestimating attendance.
The sample included cell phone numbers, which, to the extent SRBI was able to identify them, were dialed manually.
I emailed Schulman to ask about the incidence and he quickly replied with a "back of the envelope" calculation: Their sample of 519 likely caucus goers represents roughly 12% of eligible adults in Iowa (details on the jump), exactly the same
percentage as obtained by the recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, but higher than the reported 2004 Democratic caucus turnout (5.5% of eligible adults). Keep in mind, however, that the ABC/Post poll used a random digit dial methodology and screened from the population of all Iowa adults.
Keep in mind that these polls make calls to landlines and not cell-phones. I decided to check on articles related to the matter of cell phones and polls, and found one by the Pew Research Center that reported only 7 percent of the population was "cell-phone only" -- but that was in 2005. A more recent study of this year now reports that estimate to be up to 16 percent, more than double the count in just two years. Thus, I argue that with such a rate of growth, the cell-phone only population will be up to about 25 percent -- one quater of the population -- by election year 2008.
The Pew report explains that the exclusion of cell phones in 2005 probably renders a poll in error by one-percent. But considering that rate and this population increase, it's reasonable to argue that the polls are inaccuate by as much as 4 percent. If you add the error term of 5 percent in the case of the Time Iowa poll, it means a whopping 9 percent error, basically making the Iowa Democratic race impossible to call.
Stay tuned for my video on this.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Embattled Idaho Senator Larry Craig Faces Opposition From Own Party
Senator Larry Craig (R) of Idaho is currently facing fierce opposition from Presidential candidates John McCain, Mitt Romney and fellow Republicans in congress over his admittance of guilt to a disorderly conduct charge steaming from an awkward encounter with a male police officer in a Minnesota airport bathroom.
The final straw was delivered Monday afternoon when he discussed his sexual orientation during an infamous news conference in Boise when he claimed ''I am not gay and, have never been gay.'' His statement has construed political backlash from his colleagues who are calling for his resignation due to the shame and negativity he has brought to the Republican party.
The senior senator from Idaho had the opportunity to declare his innocence in front of a judge, but opted to plead guilty to what is a ridiculous charge. From the audio tape there was no concise statement from him admitting to any wrong doing, and most likely if he had fought the charge he would have been victorious. The unfortunate part of this case is that the senator is extremely frightened to come out of the closet and inside he must be going through hell.
The final straw was delivered Monday afternoon when he discussed his sexual orientation during an infamous news conference in Boise when he claimed ''I am not gay and, have never been gay.'' His statement has construed political backlash from his colleagues who are calling for his resignation due to the shame and negativity he has brought to the Republican party.
The senior senator from Idaho had the opportunity to declare his innocence in front of a judge, but opted to plead guilty to what is a ridiculous charge. From the audio tape there was no concise statement from him admitting to any wrong doing, and most likely if he had fought the charge he would have been victorious. The unfortunate part of this case is that the senator is extremely frightened to come out of the closet and inside he must be going through hell.
Free WiFi In San Francisco Dormant - Earthlink Deal Off The Table
According to the SF Chron,...
"Mayor Gavin Newsom's high-profile effort to blanket San Francisco with a free wireless Internet network died Wednesday when provider EarthLink backed out of a proposed contract with the city.
The contract, which was three years in the making, had run into snags with the Board of Supervisors, but ultimately it was undone when Atlanta-based EarthLink announced Tuesday that it no longer believed providing citywide Wi-Fi was economically viable for the company."
Perhaps this opens the door for Google.
"Mayor Gavin Newsom's high-profile effort to blanket San Francisco with a free wireless Internet network died Wednesday when provider EarthLink backed out of a proposed contract with the city.
The contract, which was three years in the making, had run into snags with the Board of Supervisors, but ultimately it was undone when Atlanta-based EarthLink announced Tuesday that it no longer believed providing citywide Wi-Fi was economically viable for the company."
Perhaps this opens the door for Google.
Republicans Ask Larry Craig To Step Down
He's got to give up his committee assignments, according to CNN, Huff Post, and other news outlets. But as this story unfolds, I predict he'll step down before the end of the year.
Larry Craig's become the poster child for hypocritical behavior. And his poor wife's being dragged through this. That's terrible to watch.
Larry Craig's become the poster child for hypocritical behavior. And his poor wife's being dragged through this. That's terrible to watch.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Furious Seasons Says Owen Wilson Was On Anti-Depressants
The blog Furious Seasons Says Owen Wilson Was On Anti-Depressants at the time of his suicide attempt. Whatever the case, my prayers for this talented man who seemed to have the World on a string.
GOP Full OF Larry Craigs - Sex Scandals And Republicans
Craig just the latest politician to embarrass the GOP
Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Printable Version
Email This Article
(08-29) 04:00 PDT Washington --
Scott Reed, a Republican strategist, was at a dinner in Philadelphia Monday night when his cell phone and Internet pager began beeping like crazy. Only later did he learn why: His party was being rocked by a sex scandal involving a Republican U.S. senator - again.
Just when Republicans thought things couldn't get any worse, Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho confirmed that he had pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct after an undercover police officer accused him of soliciting sex in a Minneapolis airport bathroom in June.
On Tuesday, Craig held a press conference to defend himself, calling the guilty plea a mistake and declaring "I am not gay" - even as the Senate Republican leadership asked for an ethics committee review.
It was a bizarre spectacle, and only the latest in a string of alleged sexual foibles and alleged financial misdeeds that have landed Republicans in the political equivalent of purgatory: the realm of late-night comic TV.
Forget Mark Foley, who quit the House last year after exchanging sexually explicit e-mails with underage male pages, or Jack Abramoff, the lobbyist whose dealings with the old Republican Congress landed him in prison. They are old news, replaced by a fresh crop of scandal-plagued Republicans, men like Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana, whose phone number turned up on the list of the "D.C. Madam," or Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska and Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona, both caught up in FBI corruption probes.
It's enough to make a self-respecting Republican want to tear his hair out in frustration.
"The real question for Republicans in Washington is how low can you go, because we are approaching a level of ridiculousness," Reed, sounding exasperated, said Tuesday. "You can't make this stuff up. And the impact this is having on the grass roots around the country is devastating. Republicans think the governing class in Washington are a bunch of buffoons who have total disregard for the principles of the party, the law of the land and the future of the country."
Then again, Washington does not have a monopoly on the latest trend among Republicans. Just ask Thomas Ravenel, the state treasurer of South Carolina, who had to step down as state chairman of Ru dy Giuliani's presidential campaign after he was indicted on cocaine charges in June.
Or Bob Allen, a state representative in Florida who was jettisoned from John McCain's campaign last month after he was arrested on charges of soliciting sex in a public restroom.
Republicans, of course, do not have an exclusive hold on scandal. As Democrats accused Republicans of engaging in a culture of corruption during the 2006 mid-term elections, Republicans eagerly put the spotlight on Rep. William Jefferson, the Louisiana Democrat who stashed $90,000 in his freezer - ill-gotten gains, the authorities said.
Still, there is sort of a "here we go again" sense among Republicans these days, especially since news of Craig's arrest broke Monday afternoon. It's tough enough being in the minority, weighed down by the burden of the war in Iraq. Now Republicans have an even more pressing task: keeping their party from being portrayed not just as hypocritical and out of touch with the values of people they represent, but also as a laughingstock - amid headlines like "Senator's Bathroom Bust," which ran all afternoon Tuesday on CNN.
Because President Bush is hobbled by his own political difficulties and the need to parry assaults on the White House by Democrats, the party can hardly look to him to lead them out of the morass.
John Feehery, who was press secretary to Rep. Dennis Hastert when Hastert was the House speaker, likened the situation to a football team having a run of bad luck during a rough game.
"If we had a coach," Feehery said, "the coach would take us in the locker room and scream at us."
Some Republicans are indeed screaming, particularly the party's social conservative wing, which places a high priority on ethics and family values.
Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, a conservative lobby in Washington, said the elections of November 2006, in which Republicans lost control of both the House and the Senate, proved that voters want politicians in Washington to clean up their act.
"Exit polls show that was the No. 1 factor in depressing Republican enthusiasm," Perkins said Tuesday. "There is an expectation that leaders who espouse family values will live by those values. And while the values voters don't demand perfection, I do believe they want leaders with integrity."
Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Printable Version
Email This Article
(08-29) 04:00 PDT Washington --
Scott Reed, a Republican strategist, was at a dinner in Philadelphia Monday night when his cell phone and Internet pager began beeping like crazy. Only later did he learn why: His party was being rocked by a sex scandal involving a Republican U.S. senator - again.
Just when Republicans thought things couldn't get any worse, Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho confirmed that he had pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct after an undercover police officer accused him of soliciting sex in a Minneapolis airport bathroom in June.
On Tuesday, Craig held a press conference to defend himself, calling the guilty plea a mistake and declaring "I am not gay" - even as the Senate Republican leadership asked for an ethics committee review.
It was a bizarre spectacle, and only the latest in a string of alleged sexual foibles and alleged financial misdeeds that have landed Republicans in the political equivalent of purgatory: the realm of late-night comic TV.
Forget Mark Foley, who quit the House last year after exchanging sexually explicit e-mails with underage male pages, or Jack Abramoff, the lobbyist whose dealings with the old Republican Congress landed him in prison. They are old news, replaced by a fresh crop of scandal-plagued Republicans, men like Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana, whose phone number turned up on the list of the "D.C. Madam," or Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska and Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona, both caught up in FBI corruption probes.
It's enough to make a self-respecting Republican want to tear his hair out in frustration.
"The real question for Republicans in Washington is how low can you go, because we are approaching a level of ridiculousness," Reed, sounding exasperated, said Tuesday. "You can't make this stuff up. And the impact this is having on the grass roots around the country is devastating. Republicans think the governing class in Washington are a bunch of buffoons who have total disregard for the principles of the party, the law of the land and the future of the country."
Then again, Washington does not have a monopoly on the latest trend among Republicans. Just ask Thomas Ravenel, the state treasurer of South Carolina, who had to step down as state chairman of Ru dy Giuliani's presidential campaign after he was indicted on cocaine charges in June.
Or Bob Allen, a state representative in Florida who was jettisoned from John McCain's campaign last month after he was arrested on charges of soliciting sex in a public restroom.
Republicans, of course, do not have an exclusive hold on scandal. As Democrats accused Republicans of engaging in a culture of corruption during the 2006 mid-term elections, Republicans eagerly put the spotlight on Rep. William Jefferson, the Louisiana Democrat who stashed $90,000 in his freezer - ill-gotten gains, the authorities said.
Still, there is sort of a "here we go again" sense among Republicans these days, especially since news of Craig's arrest broke Monday afternoon. It's tough enough being in the minority, weighed down by the burden of the war in Iraq. Now Republicans have an even more pressing task: keeping their party from being portrayed not just as hypocritical and out of touch with the values of people they represent, but also as a laughingstock - amid headlines like "Senator's Bathroom Bust," which ran all afternoon Tuesday on CNN.
Because President Bush is hobbled by his own political difficulties and the need to parry assaults on the White House by Democrats, the party can hardly look to him to lead them out of the morass.
John Feehery, who was press secretary to Rep. Dennis Hastert when Hastert was the House speaker, likened the situation to a football team having a run of bad luck during a rough game.
"If we had a coach," Feehery said, "the coach would take us in the locker room and scream at us."
Some Republicans are indeed screaming, particularly the party's social conservative wing, which places a high priority on ethics and family values.
Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, a conservative lobby in Washington, said the elections of November 2006, in which Republicans lost control of both the House and the Senate, proved that voters want politicians in Washington to clean up their act.
"Exit polls show that was the No. 1 factor in depressing Republican enthusiasm," Perkins said Tuesday. "There is an expectation that leaders who espouse family values will live by those values. And while the values voters don't demand perfection, I do believe they want leaders with integrity."
Hillary Clinton Backs National Smoking Ban - Cig Smoking George Burns Pissed! - NY Post
I think it's one thing to promote anti-cancer awareness, but quite another to back a national smoking ban. I mean, look. Why is it that the late commedian George Burns lived to the ripe age of 99 drinking and smoking cigars along the way?
I don't regularly smoke at all, but I have a cigar once a year to celebrate my annual trip to the NFL Draft. Ok, maybe twice or three times a year. But that's it. But I love having the choice!
Here's the story...
HILL EYES NATIONAL CIG CURB
By GEOFF EARLE Post Correspondent
HILLARY CLINTON
Speaks at cancer forum.
August 28, 2007 -- WASHINGTON - Hillary Clinton lavished praise on New York City's tough anti-smoking laws yesterday - and said she supports smoking bans in public places across the country.
Asked at an Iowa forum on cancer whether banning smoking in public places would be good for America, Clinton replied, "Well, personally, I think so. And that's what a lot of local communities and states are starting to do."
Clinton noted that when New York's smoking ban was being considered, critics claimed, "Oh, that's the end of, you know, the bars and restaurants in New York City."
But she boasted, "We are now having more business than ever before, because a lot of people who stayed away from going out are now going out again, because they feel like they can enjoy their time outside."
Asked whether the feds should impose a nationwide ban, Clinton deferred to local governments.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Tim Couch Reportedly Linked To Steriods and HGH
By DavidKaye
According to Yahoo! Sports columnist Josh Peter, former first overall pick Tim Couch utilized anabolic steroids and human growth hormone to aid in his attempted return to the National Football League.
Like many pro athletes, Couch enlisted the help of banned substances, namely HGH, to assist and facilitate his recovery process from injury. He admitted to Yahoo! Sports that for a short period of time he used HGH to see how much it would help him recover from shoulder surgery.
By all indications the illegal performance enhancing drug did not do much good as Couch continues to struggle to revitalize what was once a promising career.
A confidential source told the website that he witnessed Couch being injected with steroids, but the quarterback denies ever the claim. The substances Couch supposedly used are banned by the league and any offender caught using them usually faces a one month suspension, if not more.
After a five-year stint with the Cleveland Browns, Couch signed with the Packers in 2004 and was released before the regular season began. His attempted comeback with the Jaguars did not last long as he was released earlier this month, and it now seems highly unlikely that the former Kentucky star will re-surface ever again with an NFL team.
Lance Briggs Crashes Luxary Vehicle and Faces Minor Repercussions
By DavidKaye
Chicago Bears All-Pro linebacker Lance Briggs foolishly crashed his $350,000 Lamborghini Murceilago on the Edens Expressway just after 3 A.M. Monday morning. Initially Briggs called police to say that his sports car was stolen, but later confessed that he had severely damaged it himself and no one else was involved in the wreck.
Briggs posted $100 bond yesterday and was charged with a Class A misdemeanor for leaving the scene of an accident and was handed two traffic violations. At his October 4th court date it's very unlikely that the defensive star will be slapped with any jail time, although the charge does carry up to a maximum of one-year in prison.
This latest incident in what has been a circus of events over the past several months with the defending NFC champions got me thinking what was Briggs doing with his expensive vehicle in the wee hours of the morning? If practice begins at 8 A.M. for the team why is their premier linebacker out so late? What is even more puzzling to me is why head coach Lovie Smith did not institute a curfew for the players.
After the embarrassing events that played out in the Tank Johnson case, why has management not taken it upon themselves to restore some sense of sanity and order with the club. This incident sends a negative message to children and adults that it is permissible to crash your vehicle, leave the scene of an accident, be charged with a misdemeanor and not face any punishment from your employer.
Larry Craig - Barney Frank Attacks Republicans For Being Hypocritical On Gays
This is a classic exchange I saw over at Wonkette, and will repeat here in the form of the YouTube video that caused the post. Here it is:
This was uploaded in October of 2006, proving how much of an impact YouTube itself is having on politics because its developing into a kind of cultural archive.
Here's the story of what Larry Craig supposedly did according to CNN.com:
WASHINGTON (CNN) – CNN has obtained the June 11, 2007 police report detailing Idaho Sen. Larry Craig's disorderly conduct arrest in an airport bathroom.
In the report, the arresting officer alleges that Craig lingered outside a restroom stall where the officer was sitting, then entered the stall next door and blocked the stall door with his luggage. (Read the report [PDF])
According to the report, Craig tapped his right foot, which the officer said he recognized "as a signal used by persons wishing to engage in lewd conduct."
"Craig tapped his toes several times and moved his foot closer to my foot," the report states. "I moved my foot up and down slowly. While this was occurring, the male in the stall to my right was still present. I could hear several unknown persons in the restroom that appeared to use the restroom for its intended use. The presence of others did not seem to deter Craig as he moved his right foot so that it touched the side of my left foot which was within my stall area."
At that point, the officer said he put his police identification down by the floor so Craig could see it, and informed the senator that he was under arrest, before any sexual contact took place.
Craig, who agreed to plead guilty to disorderly conduct, denied to the officer he was engaging in any inappropriate activity.
According to the report, Craig told the police that "he has a wide stance when going to the bathroom and that his foot may have touched mine [the officer's]."
This was uploaded in October of 2006, proving how much of an impact YouTube itself is having on politics because its developing into a kind of cultural archive.
Here's the story of what Larry Craig supposedly did according to CNN.com:
WASHINGTON (CNN) – CNN has obtained the June 11, 2007 police report detailing Idaho Sen. Larry Craig's disorderly conduct arrest in an airport bathroom.
In the report, the arresting officer alleges that Craig lingered outside a restroom stall where the officer was sitting, then entered the stall next door and blocked the stall door with his luggage. (Read the report [PDF])
According to the report, Craig tapped his right foot, which the officer said he recognized "as a signal used by persons wishing to engage in lewd conduct."
"Craig tapped his toes several times and moved his foot closer to my foot," the report states. "I moved my foot up and down slowly. While this was occurring, the male in the stall to my right was still present. I could hear several unknown persons in the restroom that appeared to use the restroom for its intended use. The presence of others did not seem to deter Craig as he moved his right foot so that it touched the side of my left foot which was within my stall area."
At that point, the officer said he put his police identification down by the floor so Craig could see it, and informed the senator that he was under arrest, before any sexual contact took place.
Craig, who agreed to plead guilty to disorderly conduct, denied to the officer he was engaging in any inappropriate activity.
According to the report, Craig told the police that "he has a wide stance when going to the bathroom and that his foot may have touched mine [the officer's]."
1-18-08.com - ROARING Sound On J.J. Abrams' Cloverfield Monstrous Movie Website
Yep. Now, there a monstrous ROAR that plays on the website for J.J. Abrams monster movie and after about six to 15 minutes of time. Actually it took 20 minutes for me; I forgot about it by the time it happened!
Monday, August 27, 2007
Ann Coulter - Devil Woman Wrecks John Edwards' Campaign
Senator Edwards was front runner in 2006 for the 2008 Democratic Presidential Campaign. Edwards polling has dropped – behind Clinton and Obama now
Why?
Ann Coulter
Coulter – The Devil Woman – has done harm by her comments about Edwards, but only because Edwards paid attention to them.
How did this start?
Her comments at the Conservative Political Action Conference where she used the F Word He responded in kind, calling her a “She Devil” which is just like being a devil woman
Liz Edwards jumps in calling Coulter while Ann’s on The Hardball Show. All of this has helped Ann’s visibility – she gets on Good Morning America and other shows talking about this and continuing the feud. She’s supposed to do this – she’s a pundit.
Now Ann’s brave and effective. She’s smart, attractive, and engaging. But she’s also skinny. Ann, you need to go to the gym, lift some free weights, and come out looking like Female Bodybuilder Christine Roth! Then you can make those pugilistic comments of yours without fear.
Now as for Edwards – or the Edwards family – they’ve hurt his chance to be president by rolling in the mud with Ann. Edwards has even used her videos making fun of him as part of his campaign fundraising strategy.
Didn’t work.
Why? Because on balance many people don’t care about what Ann says or know who she is. But they see a presidential candidate lowering himself to take her on and say “He doesn’t look Presidential” and they’re right!
You don’t see Senator Barack Obama or Senator Hillary Clinton commenting on Ann. Former President Clinto ignored her and she used the f-term to describe him.
But not the Edwards.
Indeed, John and Liz have developed a track record of arguing with pundits and making statement that don’t sound like things a presidential candidate should say. Let’s take Liz Statement about John being White and Male as a handicap in his run.
Bad form. It seemed like it was fine when he was ahead. I like Liz – she’s battling breast cancer as did my Mom, who’s won the fight! But still it wasn’t a dignified, presidential comment.
The Edwards’ have harmed themselves by forming an image that’s more in line with attacking a Devil Woman, but not one appropriate for President of The United States. Leave the Devil Woman alone – she’s gonna get you!
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